Welcome to Week 8. It’s make or break for some teams, while others are thinking playoffs. So whether you’ve lost J.K. Dobbins, Nick Chubb and Anthony Richardon to IR (rip your dopamine), or snagged Raheem Mostert, Puka Nacua and Adam Thielen (rip your league mates) - read on.

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MARKET CHECK

EVERYTHING REPORT

The Horseshoe Heroes

The Colts offense could be a fantasy goldmine. First the backfield: Across Minshew’s three starts, Indianapolis’ RBs are now averaging over 28 carries, 8 targets, 29.8 XFP, and 27.7 FP per game. If over the full season and among all offenses, those numbers would rank 1st-, 2nd-, 1st-, and 3rd-best. Jonathan Taylor has league winning potential if he claims just 70% of that backfield.

Second, the receivers: With Minshew behind center, Josh Downs is around WR13 in FPG and WR15 in XFP/G. Pittman is WR12 spot in FPG and WR16 in XFP/G. Over that time, they faced two of the top three toughest slot defenses. Buy.

Alvin Kamara currently leads all players at all positions in XFP/G (25.9), which is also +34% more than the next-closest RB. He’s undoubtedly an uber-back and one of the best draft picks you could have made all summer. He’s averaging 8.8 receptions per game this season….if this usage continues, he has league-wrecking upside.

Calvin Ridley has been out-targeted by Christian Kirk 51 to 36 since Week 2. Scott says it’s possible that Ridley is an overrated talent due to the underlying numbers. He notes that the last time we saw Ridley he had just one 1,000-yard season (2016) and averaged just 5.4 yards per target in 2021… then spent 22 months away from football. Jaguars HC Doug Pederson has only had two WRs clear 900 receiving yards in 10 seasons as an NFL head coach or coordinator, so maybe the lights just turned on and we’re seeing Ridley for what he really is...

Read Scott Barrett’s Week 8 Everything Report for insight into Josh Jacobs and Jaylen Waddle.

START/SITS

Lord Taylor is Coming

Start Jonathan Taylor. Taylor commanded a season-high 61.9% of the backfield expected fantasy points last week and looked explosive on his touches. In this three-week ramp-up, Taylor already ranks 11th-best in yards after contact per carry (3.09) out of 59 qualifying RBs. The Saints continue to play stout run defense (3.30 YPC allowed | 6th-fewest), and that makes Taylor more of a high-upside RB2 as opposed to a locked-in RB1 this week.

Start C.J. Stroud. Stroud has shown tremendous poise and accuracy when he’s thrown from a clean pocket, ranking 4th in YPA (8.7) with a lowly 1.9% turnover-worthy throw rate (9th-lowest) when he’s not pressured. This week, he faces a Panthers team with the weakest pass rush in the league, generating pressure on a league-low 13.5% of opponents’ pass plays when they do not blitz.

Sit Zack Moss. Moss saw a season-low 38.1% of the backfield expected fantasy points last week. Moss gets pushed down to the low-end RB3/FLEX range in this tough spot on the ground. Moss is also dealing with elbow/heel injuries and missed practice; he’s questionable for Week 8.

Sit Brian Robinson. He’s starting to split carries with Chris Rodriguez Jr. Over the last two weeks, Robinson has 18 carries (54 yards), while Rodriguez has gained as many yards (54) on almost half the carries (11). Antonio Gibson (46% route share) plays ahead of Robinson (27%) on passing downs when the Commanders are trailing, which leaves us with hoping Robinson falls into the end zone. The Eagles are allowing a league-low 53.1 rushing yards per game.

Start DJ Moore. He has 15 targets (on 43 attempts) from Tyson Bagent for a whopping 34.8% share. No secondary is allowing more fantasy points (27.7 per game) to opposing outside receivers than the Chargers.

Start Zay Flowers. Arizona is getting torched for 148 yards (2nd-most) and 25.5 fantasy points (4th-most) on a per-game basis to opposing outside receivers. Flowers has seen at least a 21% target share in 6-of-7 games.

Sit Amari Cooper. Seattle’s defense is really starting to gel. Over the last three weeks with CBs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon on the field, the Seahawks have held opposing receivers to just 40/336/2 receiving (on 61 targets). That’s a lowly 5.51 yards per target allowed. With PJ Walker under center, Cooper is a boom-or-bust WR3.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (and see why he’s sitting Steelers running backs and flexing Javonte Williams).

Tony Pollard incoming. He’s the RB2 in expected FPG with 19.3 but the RB11 in FPG with 15.4. His YPC average is down from 5.2 in 2022 to 3.9 in 2023 and his YPR is down from 9.5 to 7.0, and he’s scored just 2 TDs through six games after finding paydirt 12 times last season. The Rams are allowing the ninth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.61) and 4.2 YPC to RBs, and Pittsburgh’s struggling RBs combined for 25.9 FP last week, per Tom Brolley’s Week 8 Game Hub.

Welcome to Nico Collins week. Collins moves all around the formation, but 80% of his routes have come on the perimeter, per our charting data. Among 128 corners with 50 or more coverage snaps played, Panthers CBs Henderson (2.05) and Jackson (2.04) rank 6th and 7th-worst in yards per route run allowed. Jackson is 11th in PPR FP/coverage snap allowed, and Henderson is 16th. It’s a massive spot for Collins to blow up, and Dolan expects he’ll be popular in DFS this week. I can endorse that, especially since it seems like the Texans should be able to protect CJ Stroud, per Joe Dolan’s Week 8 Mismatch Report.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️

Houston Texans (4%) vs. CAR —Bryce Young’s 5.3 yards per attempt is laughably bad and he’ll face a run funnel in Houston, who has given up eight rushing scores to only a league-low four passing. This game script has Texans written all over it.

Atlanta Falcons (13%) vs. TEN – The Titans are running out both Malik Willis and Will Levis this weekend. Neither will spark a Titans offense that hasn’t scored over 16 points since Week 4, while the Titans sit 8th in points allowed to opposing D/ST units. Fire up ATL.

DFS

Fly, AJ Brown Fly

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown, Jake Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall and DFS Values and Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells are must-reads:

WR AJ Brown is dominating first-read targets. His 42% first-read target rate is 2nd among all players and 19% higher than DeVonta Smith, the next-closest Eagle. Washington is also the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+9.4 FPG). This is the perfect spot for Brown, but there’s also a chance Smith has a get-right game as well, per Tribbey’s Week 8 DFS Study Hall.

RB Breece Hall hit season-highs in snap share (68%, 12th-most), route share (50%), and target share (15.2%) in Week 6, prior to the team's bye. The Giants rank dead last in adjusted yards before contact allowed per attempt (2.16), which speaks to Hall’s potential to break off a long run in this game. The Giants also rank 7th-worst in schedule-adjusted rushing FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+2.9). And this is a rare game where the Jets are actually favored to win (albeit by only 3.0 points), per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

Bijan Robinson will never be cheaper. All it took was an undisclosed illness and 0.3 fantasy points in Week 7 for the Bijan fire sale to commence. Don’t forget, Robinson ranked 10th in snap share (72%), 2nd in route share (67%), and 14th in XFP/G (15.2) through the first six weeks. His matchup isn’t great, but it’s also not terrible – the Titans are the 9th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for RBs (-2.4 FPG). He’s a borderline cash play at this price, per Tribbey’s Week 8 DFS Values.

TE Trey McBride has a tremendous opportunity. It’s clear the TE position is a major focal point of the Cardinals offense – Ertz and McBride rank (respectively) 4th (0.25) and 5th (0.24) among all TEs in TPRR. And McBride has played exceptionally well this year, currently ranking behind only Travis Kelce in YPRR (1.87)… He’s arguably the best DFS play of the entire Week 8 slate, priced at just $2,800 on DraftKings, per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

Coverage Shells

Jared Goff bounces back. Detroit holds the third-highest team total of the week (27.25) as the Lions host the Raiders at Ford Field, where they average a league-high 58.4 combined points per game over the last two seasons. After getting stomped out by Baltimore, Jared Goff ($6,400) is the ninth-most expensive QB on DraftKings for the slate, likely because the Raiders give up 199.6 passing YPG this season (third-fewest among defenses). However, due to the implied point total, we might have to look past the limited yards LV has allowed through the air.

Goff is tied with Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) for the best FP/DB against single-high coverage at 0.55. Goff’s 0.39 FP/DB against zone coverage is top three among all QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this year. LV deploys zone coverage at a 74% rate and single-high at a 52% rate, per Spanola’s Week 8 Coverage Shells.

TRADES & BETS

You Can’t Stop Lamar

Lamar Jackson is surging. He leads all qualifying QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.62) and CPOE (+5.9%) after dismantling the Lions. He's averaging a career-high 8.3 YPA so far this season. He ranks 2nd in XFP/G on the ground (6.7) behind only Jalen Hurts. Even more critically, his 4.0% passing TD rate is the lowest of his career since his rookie season. Given how well Jackson is playing, positive TD regression is likely in his future, per Heath’s Week 8 Big Board.

Acquire David Montgomery. He hasn’t had a big game in 16 days and feels like a forgotten man. He’s probably not forgotten by the person who has him, because he’s the RB2 in scoring in his four healthy games. The Lions may keep him out until after their bye in Week 9, so you might not be able to use him until Week 10. But if someone is in need of wins now, you could take Monty off their hands at a discount and have him for the stretch run as a great RB2 or a phenomenal flex, per Hansen’s Week 8 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Jordan Addison stepped into the Jefferson role. His 36.4% first-read target share would rank as the 3rd-highest 1st-read target share for a Vikings’ player this season. He should be a borderline WR1 moving forward as long as Jefferson is out. Before this week, Addison was besting Jefferson in top 5 passer rating when targeted weeks and is now seeing Jefferson's volume, per Wecht’s Five Stats To Know From Week 7.

Props & Odds

Nico Collins over 51.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365). The Panthers perimeter CBs are allowing a league-high yards per route run (2.76) to outside WRs. Robert Woods (foot) is not practicing out of the bye. Collins is Stroud’s first-read 26.1% of the time, followed by Woods (22%) and Dell (18%), per Graham Barfield’s Best Bets, Week 8.

Bryce Young under 231.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings). Young has 217 or fewer yards in 4-of-5 games, averaging 5.3 YPA and as 3-point home underdogs may not get massive garbage-time work like he has for much of the season. HOU has allowed 225 or fewer yards in 3-of-6 games, per Tom Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 8.

Cole Kmet under 29.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings). Projected at 28 yards, Kmet has yet to see a target on 43 attempts in 83 minutes of action with Bagent at QB, had just a 51.5% route share last week and is averaging 9.6 YPR with an aDOT of 6.0 yards, per Tom Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 8.

📱 Tweets

Scott has some fun NFL trade ideas…which is your favorite?

One of Ryan’s 10 most important stats:

Movies, fantasy football and Arthur Smith ruining Sundays.

INJURY REPORT

Survive and Advance

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risk for Week 8.

Last week, Edwin highlighted why you should be careful with DK Metcalf and trust Jahmyr Gibbs. This week:

Kenneth Walker. Walker is on the report with a calf strain and did not practice Wednesday. Since 2018 29% of the time, this means nothing, and RBs play. Be sure you have a backup ready to roll. Zach Charbonnet would make sense if Walker doesn't go.

Roschon Johnson. Since 2018, RBs who are coming off a concussion perform up to their pre-injury levels. There’s one problem: we have no idea what Johnson’s pre-injury levels are. Johnson should play and be okay in Week 8, but that backfield will be difficult to decipher after D’Onta Foreman’s monster Week 7.

Tyler Lockett. Lockett ran fewer routes on the outside last week and yet did not meet expectations. There’s no change in his route rate or targets per route, but something just isn’t right here. He’s a volatile start in Week 8.

Brock Purdy. Purdy practiced again, making this situation complex. Even if Purdy clears protocol, is it possible SF sits him anyway? We’ve already seen this with Jonathan Mingo and, to a certain extent, Deshaun Watson. Even if Purdy goes, there’s a 63% increase in turnover-worthy plays for QBs after a concussion. He’s not useable in single QB leagues.

Read Dr. Edwin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30 am inactives here: Week 8 Injury Report.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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• 2023 Week 8 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

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