Welcome to Week 7, where we all try to survive a week without losing more superstars. It’s also a critical time for those start/sit decisions. Buckle up.

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Everything Report

Waiting on Jacobs

Alexander Mattison’s usage and volume were elite through the first three weeks of the season – he ranked 7th in snap share (76%) and 3rd in XFP/G (19.8). And then, over the next two weeks, he earned a demotion of sorts, as his snap-share fell to just 58% (21st), and he averaged just 10.6 XFP/G (26th).

But in Week 6, Mattison’s usage and volume picked right back up to where it was across the first three weeks of the season – he earned 21.9 XFP (3rd-most). The big problem is that he’s been pretty terrible (Luckily, Cam Akers has also been terrible.) So, Scott is not sure if this usage sticks. But if it does, Scott would absolutely be targeting him as a positive regression candidate.

Kenneth Walker hit season-highs in snap share (76%) and carry share (76%) last week. Across the full season, he ranks 9th in XFP/G (17.2) and 9th in FPG (18.3). He’s a mid-range to low-end RB1 most weeks, but an easy top-3 option this week in a perfect matchup with perfect projected gamescript up against the Cardinals.

Buy low on Josh Jacobs, ideally before this week’s game. The Tyson Bagent-led Bears have given up the 4th-most FPG to opposing RBs (27.5) and Jacobs’ usage remains amazing, and significantly better than it was last year (when, mind you, he finished as fantasy football’s RB3). He ranks 4th among all RBs in XFP/G (19.6), although he ranks only 15th in FPG (14.9). In other words, he’s a massive positive regression candidate.

D’Andre Swift looks like a game script-immune bell cow RB. Since Week 2, Swift ranks 6th in carries (85), 5th in targets (24), 7th in XFP/G (18.1), and 8th in FPG (19.1). Scott views him as a low-end RB1 this week, and probably every week moving forward.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 7 Everything Report.

Week 7 Start/Sits

Pitts Resurgence

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 7.

Start Kyle Pitts vs TB. After failing to finish better than TE16 in the opening month, Pitts has notched TE9 and TE3 scoring weeks. The Buccaneers are allowing the 6th-most yards and 4th-most fantasy points per game to slot wideouts, while Pitts is running 60% of his routes lined up in the slot.

Sit Jameson Williams. He looked explosive last week and had a nice TD catch, but we’re left wanting more opportunities. Williams ran fewer routes (19% route share) than Josh Reynolds (71%), Marvin Jones (27%), and Kalif Raymond (25%) in Week 6. His time is coming, but volume needs to arrive first.

Start Puka Nacua vs PIT. Even with Kupp back, Nacua has seen 30% and 29% of the targets over the last two weeks. This offense is solely condensed around these two receivers. The Steelers are getting hammered for the 4th-most fantasy points per game to WRs.

Start D.J. Moore, who will be funnelled targets by Bears backup QB Tyson Bagent. Last week, Moore drew 6 targets on just 14 pass attempts (42.8% share) from Baget. Since the team moved on from Chase Claypool three weeks ago, Moore has been the first-read target a whopping 46.4% of the time.

Start Sam Howell. He’s going to take sacks, like always, but the matchup signals that this is a good spot. Howell is better against man coverage, averaging 8.3 YPA vs. man - that dips significantly (6.8) against zone. The Giants love to blitz and play the 5th-highest rate of man coverage (35%). It hasn’t been pretty, but Howell has finished as the QB13 or better in weekly scoring in 5-of-6 games.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (and learn why he’s sitting Ravens running backs and flexing Jaylen Warren).

Brown’s running backs should smash. After last week’s usage, it looks like Kareem Hunt is back into his old role from previous seasons and Jerome Ford is in the Chubb role. The Colts are giving up just 3.6 YPC to RBs but they lost Grover Stewart to a six-game suspension. They’ve allowed the second-most rushing TDs per game (1.2) to the position after Travis Etienne posted 18/55/2 rushing, per Tom Brolley’s Week 7 Game Hub.

If you’re waiting for the DK Metcalf explosion, this could be it (if he plays). DK runs 60% of his routes from the left side of the formation, where he’ll face off against the Cardinals’ Marco Wilson most of the time (68%). Wilson has allowed a 5th-most .44 FP/coverage snap this year, and his 424 yards surrendered in primary coverage are 2nd-most in the NFL. Smash spot if DK is healthy, per Joe Dolan’s Week 7 Mismatch Report.

👀 Watch Keenan Allen vs Trent McDuffie. This could be the matchup of the week for WR/CB film nerds. McDuffie has already aligned himself with the elite slot CBs in the NFL — his 0.13 PPR FP/coverage snap is 4th-fewest among qualified slot CBs. Meanwhile, Allen’s 55.2 YPG in the slot is 3rd-most in the NFL, behind only Cooper Kupp (72.0) and Adam Thielen (58.2). McDuffie aligned over Allen on just 7 routes last season … and did not allow a catch, per Dolan’s Week 7 Mismatch Report.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️ 

Las Vegas Raiders (47%) vs CHI - If you picked LV up last week vs the Pats, it’s time to run it back. With Fields out, we’ll see Tyson Bagent under center. Great spot here.

Chicago Bears (13%) vs. LV - Want to get weird? CHI is likely available and has hit double-digit points in back-to-back weeks. They’re at home, facing a backup QB with a poor O line. Send it.

Week 7 DFS

Hammer Time

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown, Jake Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall and DFS Values and Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells are must-reads:

Consider Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. Both of them are pretty interchangeable in terms of receiving numbers this year. Flowers has 1.84 YPRR, while Andrews is at 1.86. The Lions allow the fifth most DK PPG to players aligned in the slot (26 vs. WRs, 7.5 vs TEs) and give up 36% of their total passing yards after the catch, the lowest mark among all defenses this season.

Flowers leads the Ravens with a 30% share of the team’s air yards. This could lean towards an explosive play kind of day, rather than all the designed stuff we saw earlier in the year, per Spanola’s Coverage Shells. Flowers ranks 11th in target share (27.7%), 1st in designed target rate (29.2%), and 22nd in XFP/G (14.7)

Geno Smith hasn’t been as strong of an asset as he was last year, but he also hasn’t played in a top-10 matchup yet. Arizona ranks as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+6.5 FPG) and has allowed the 6th-most passing YPG (266.3) while registering the 6th-fewest pressures. Note: Pivot to Jordan Love if D.K. Metcalf gets ruled out ($6,000 on DK).

Josh Jacobs averages 23.8 FPG (RB3) in wins, but just 14.6 FPG (RB16) in losses since the start of last season. The Raiders' implied win probability this week is 61%, per Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall. The Raiders are favored by 3.5 points against the Tyson Bagent-led Bears, who are also giving up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted rushing FPG to enemy RBs (+3.5) ($7,400).

Christian Watson looked fully healthy in Week 5 - earning 70% air yard share and 50% of GB’s receiving yards. After 13 days of rest, he gets the Broncos. There’s a risk Surtain shadows him, but his value is too immense. Top 5 WR on both sites and fringe cash play, per Tribbey’s DFS Values.

Trades and Bets

Running From Father Time

You can’t ignore Adam Thielen. Through six weeks, Thielen is averaging 21.1 FPG (WR6) on a 34.8% first-read target share (WR13). Even when filtering out uncatchable targets from Bryce Young, Thielen ranks 8th among WRs in catchable XFP/G (14.8). The lesson here is that players with a history of earning targets could well do it again, per Heath’s Week 7 Big Board.

Acquire Romeo Doubs. He’s coming off his worst game of the season and hasn’t had a productive game since September 28th. Doubs might be a little volatile, but the arrow should be pointing up the next five weeks with this sweet slate of games: at Den, vs. Min, vs. LAR, at Pit, and vs. LAC. Should be a cheap but useful target, per Hansen’s Week 7 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop bets for Week 7.

Props & Odds

Lamar Jackson: Over 28.5 Passing Attempts. Kelly has him projected at 35 attempts, as Lamar has attempted at least 30 passes in four of his last five games and QBs are averaging 38 pass attempts per game against the Lions over the last four weeks. Additionally, EVERY QB the Lions have faced this season has attempted at least 36 passes, per Paul Kelly’s Props, Week 7

Gus Edwards under 45.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM). Projection: 41 yards, averaging 3.9 YPC, DET is allowing only .87 adjusted YBC/A and the fewest rushing YPG (47.2) to RBs, KWIII has a season-high 43 yards against DET, per Tom Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 7

Jakobi Meyers: Over 3.5 Receptions. Kelly has him projected at 5.5 catches, as Meyers has caught at least five balls in every game but one so far this year. Aiden O’Connell was the QB in the one game that he didn’t reach five catches, but it will be Brian Hoyer at QB this week, and I think he’ll be serviceable enough to get us to four grabs for Meyers and win this bet, per Paul Kelly’s Props, Week 7

Michael Mayer over 20.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM). FP Projection: 38 yards, 39+ yards in back-to-back games, season-high 81% snap share and 67% route share in W6, CHI has allowed 41+ yards to an individual TE in 5-of-6 games, per Tom Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 7

📱 Tweets

Taysom Hill is inevitable.

Scott is right…this feels like a fever dream.

The Garrett Wilson stats Ryan highlights are impressive…

Injury Report

Have Mercy

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risk for Week 7.

Last week, he helped us navigate some superstar injuries. This week:

Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers have said that McCaffrey’s MRI is “encouraging,” but he did not practice Thursday or Friday. This could come down to pain tolerance for McCaffrey and how willing San Fran will be to throw him out there. He’s 50/50 and the issue is that the Niners play on Monday night.

DK Metcalf. Metcalf is banged up now, adding in the hip issue. The DNP is not necessarily a surprise, and even if he sits out practice all week, he could still play. Stay locked onto this situation today. Game time decision.

Diontae Johnson. Johnson is trending towards playing in Week 7. There’s a 15% dip in fantasy production in the first week back, but managers who waited this long can slide him in if needed.

Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs will return to the field in Week 7. There’s a 24% reinjury rate here, but given the backfield’s current state of affairs, he’ll likely still see his usual volume, if not more.

Deshaun Watson is progressing to start for the first time in a month after returning to practice this week.

Aaron Jones. Similar to Jahmyr Gibbs, Jones will face a 24% reinjury rate. It’s more prevalent for him as he’s already had difficulty returning as a 28-year-old. Don’t give him up for nothing, but Jones is a low-key trade-away candidate for me. Still, you have to start him in Week 7.

Read Dr. Edin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30 am inactives here: Week 7 Injury Report.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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• 2023 Week 7 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

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