Welcome to Week 15. It’s officially playoff season! Congrats on the regular season victories, they mean nothing. This is the real game.

The Fantasy Points team dives into the Sunday/Monday games to give you advantages to exploit before the next round.

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MARKET CHECK

EVERYTHING REPORT

Zeke Rolls Back The Clock

Ezekiel Elliot has league-winning potential. Last week, Elliott played on 91% of the team’s snaps, earning 22 carries and 8 targets (23.3%). Elliott has probably lost a step or two, but that doesn’t matter as much as his usage and volume. With Rhamondre Stevenson out for the next several weeks, consider Zeke a low-end RB1.

Rashee Rice has fully arrived. He’s hit a season-high in route share in three straight games, peaking at 82% last week. Based on his YPRR, if he had this route share all season, he’d be averaging 79.7 YPG instead of 51.0. He’s also led the team in targets in three straight games, totaling 29 (8 more than Travis Kelce, 19 more than any other Chiefs WR). Rice is already now a meaningful contributor to your team throughout your playoff run - possibly even a top 2023 league winner.

MVPurdy & the San Francisco 49ers. Across the full season, Purdy is averaging 9.33 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), which ranks as the 3rd-best season all-time, behind only 2004 Peyton Manning and 2011 Aaron Rodgers. He's now cleared 23.5 DK fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games, averaging 23.0 DK FPG over this span. That would rank 2nd-best on this week’s DFS slate, although he’s priced as just the QB7 on DraftKings ($6,800).

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 15 Everything Report.

START/SITS

Bijan Season Is Here

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 15.

Start Bijan Robinson. Robinson’s snap rate has risen in three straight games (63% > 75% > 78%) out of Atlanta’s bye. The Panthers are hemorrhaging fantasy points to running backs, and have faced a league-high 34 goal-line carries (2.6 per game). That’s what has fueled their 22 (!!) TDs allowed to RBs.

Start David Njoku. Since Week 7, he’s tied with Jake Ferguson for TE7 in fantasy points per game (11.0). In this span, Njoku is second at the position in targets per game (8.8) behind only TJ Hockenson and Trey McBride. We’ll take the TE1 volume and let the chips fall where they may.

Start DeAndre Hopkins. Since Will Levis took over in Week 6, Hopkins has seen 32.5% of the first-read targets and 45% of the air yards. Nuk’s average depth of target has spiked to 16.0 yards. The Texans play the 6th-most two-high safety coverage (53%), and Hopkins is averaging a strong 3.61 yards per route run against those looks.

Sit Devin Singletary. He was back in front of this backfield with 57% of the snaps last week with 13/65/1 rushing while Dameon Pierce had just four carries. Still, Singletary is a low-end RB3/FLEX option if necessary. The Texans have the 5th-lowest implied total (16.8) with Case Keenum behind center.

Sit Tua Tagovailoa. The Jets are allowing just 5.97 YPA (2nd-fewest), and they’re forcing a 40.2% pressure rate (3rd-highest). The Dolphins just lost Center Connor Williams (ACL) for the season and are dealing with multiple injuries to his replacement options. Avoid.

Sit Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet. As expected, this backfield has devolved into a split with both runners healthy. Walker played on 56% of the snaps (8 carries, 5 targets) and Charbonnet mixed in for 42% of the snaps (9 carries, one target). Ideally, you can avoid this backfield. Philadelphia is giving up just 78.3 yards per game on the ground (4th-fewest).

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (and see why he’s flexing Zay Flowers and Curtis Samuel)

D.K. Metcalf has posted 94+ yards and/or a TD in four of his last five games. The Eagles deploy the ninth-highest rate of man coverage (30.6%), and Metcalf paces this passing attack in YPRR (2.27) and target share (31.2%) on 102 routes against man coverage. The Eagles are giving up the 12th-most receiving YPG (119.5) but the 10th-fewest YPRR (1.76) to receivers aligned out wide. Start with confidence, per Brolley’s Week 15 Game Hub.

Watch the Cowboys pass rush vs Bills OL. Josh Allen and the Bills have our 3rd-worst Pass Grade of the week, largely but not entirely because they’re going up against the Cowboys’ strong pass rush. But by nature, Allen is the kind of QB who will invite more pressure than expected. In the three games this season in which Allen has been pressured the most above expectation, he’s totalled 25/83/3 rushing, with a touchdown on the ground in each game. You’re not sitting him, but you probably will need his legs to reach value, per Dolan’s Week 15 Mismatch Report.

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes's IDP Prop bets for Week 15.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️ 

Tennessee Titans (6%) – Case Keenum is starting and Houston could also be without Nico Collins, who left Week 14 with a calf injury. The Titans DST showed up for their MNF showdown with Miami. They won’t face the same challenge in Week 15.

Atlanta Falcons (32%) – Carolina should be in a negative game script, and if they have to throw, they’ll face a Falcons defense that leads the NFL in lowest adjusted completion percentage at 61% since week 12. Add Atlanta and ride them for the remainder of the playoffs (@CAR, IND, @CHI).

DFS

Kyren Is Carrying

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown, Jake Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall and DFS Values and Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells are must-reads:

In 9 games, Kyren Williams ($7,500) ranks 1st in snap share (83.2%), 3rd in XFP/G (18.5), 1st in red zone XFP/G (7.5), and 3rd in FPG (20.4). He’s ~90% of peak Todd Gurley (by usage) for just ~80% of the price, per Tribbey’s Week 15 DFS Study Hall.

Jordan Love ($6,200). Believe it or not, Love has as many games of 20 or more DraftKings points (6) as Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. You can doubt Love’s upside (zero games over 27.0 DK points), but you can’t doubt that he’s a strong value this week, facing a top-4 pass funnel in Tampa Bay – and potentially without either of his top RBs, per Barrett’s Week 15 DFS Breakdown.

Demarcus Robinson (DK $3,600 | FD $5,600). After a Tutu Atwell injury last week, Robinson’s route share ballooned up to 93%, which allowed him to see 179 air yards (48.5% air yardage share) and 10 targets (24.4% target share), including 3 end zone targets. He’s a value against the worst league secondary this week, per Tribbey’s Week 15 DFS Values.

49ers WR Deebo Samuel owns a 4.27 YPRR, 0.80 FPRR, 42% receiving yards and 30% target share against two-high defenses this season - which are all good for the highest in the NFL out of 136 qualifiers. The Cardinals deploy two-high coverage 2nd-most among defenses (64%), so this should smash, per Spanola’s Week 15 Coverage Shells. 

PLAYOFF FEATURE

Rookie Revenge

Three rookies have led the NFL in designed targets since Week 10: Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. We talk all the time about how rookie wide receivers, in particular, usually come on later in the season. A large reason for that is it takes time for them to learn the offense and for coaches to trust them to be the focal point of the play.

Reed, Rice, and JSN are players to keep an eye on for big weeks through the fantasy playoffs as we close out the season, per Wecht’s Week 14 Five Stats To Know.

📱 Tweets

Trey McBride is a machine.

The Chargers…yikes.

Great strategy for the Underdog Battle Royale contest this weekend.

INJURY REPORT

Tyreek Terror

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risk for Week 15.

Last week, Edwin highlighted why you should wait on Trevor Lawrence. This week:

Tyreek Hill (High-Ankle). When it comes to high ankle sprains, WRs try to return too soon and end up with a whopping 32% re-injury rate vs. just 12% for RBs. This is the primary concern for Hil who may try and return ASAP to chase the receiving yards record.

When WRs return from this injury, they see a massive 34% dip in PPR fantasy points and a 26% dip in targets per game. Still, and I cannot emphasize this enough, Hill should not be faded. He is a game-breaking talent who needs 1-2 plays to pay off. Leave the decision-making up to DFS gamers, who should avoid him in cash games.

Geno Smith (Groin). Geno has been limited this week with a groin injury. The primary concern with him is general mobility but also re-injury risk. Playoff teams in single QB leagues should steer clear of Geno, even if he’s active.

Aaron Jones (Knee). This has to be the week GB chooses to activate Jones, as AJ Dillon broke his thumb. Jones will get the usage to pay off, but reinjury of the knee injury and the previous hamstring injury looms heavy. Still, most gamers in most situations should slot him in and hope for the best. His reinjury risk is 12%.

Chris Olave (Ankle). Olave is battling an ankle injury and hasn’t practiced this week. If active, production tends to dip by about 9%, but the median is even lower. Season-long gamers should start Olave but DFS grinders keep in mind this is not likely to be a ceiling game for Olave and reinjury is possible.

Read Dr. Edin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30 am inactives here: Week 15 Injury Report.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our Week 15 projections and rankings are accessible to FantasyPoints subscribers:

• 2023 Week 15 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

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