Welcome to Week 17! Most of you have championships this weekend. Good luck! We’ve packed today’s newsletter with info you need for the title.

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MARKET CHECK

START/SITS

Championship Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 17.

Start Justin Fields. In his 10 starts not shortened by injuries, Fields is averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game (QB6). That trails the tie at QB4 between Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott (20 FPG). The Falcons are allowing a league-high 10.5 YPC on QB scrambles, and the 9th-most rushing yardage per game overall (20.5).

Start Chris Godwin. Godwin has turned his 34 targets into 21/286 receiving over the last three weeks. In this span, Godwin has earned 37% of the targets and seen a whopping 45% of the air yards. This is a massive change. In his first 11 games with Mike Evans healthy, Godwin saw just 19% of the targets and 23% of the air yards. He is an upside WR2 here.

Start Devin Singletary. With Stroud back, Singletary is a high-upside RB2 on this championship slate. The Titans can be cracked on the ground. Over the last three weeks without stud DL Jeffery Simmons (knee), Tennessee has allowed 115.7 rushing yards (9th-most per game) and 4.39 YPC (10th-most).

Sit Jordan Addison. Questionable with an ankle injury, Addison is a total boom-or-bust WR3/4 option if he’s able to suit up. If you’re desperately relying on Addison, make sure you have Osborn or a Packer WR/TE available on Sunday night. Addison is a game-time call.

Sit Diontae Johnson. Averaging 2.9 receptions and 35.7 yards per game over his last seven contests. Johnson is struggling against zone coverages, and that’s very important for this week. Seattle deploys zone coverage at the 2nd-highest rate (84%).

Sit Tua Tagovailoa. Tua is completing 72% of his throws for a strong 8.6 YPA over his last six games, but he’s finished outside of the top-20 scoring QBs four times in this span. The Ravens have allowed just two top-12 scoring weeks at QB all season (the fewest). Baltimore is giving up a league-low 0.26 passing fantasy points per dropback.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (and see why he’s flexing Zamir White and Stefon Diggs).

Nico Collins gutted through his calf injury last week, mustering just 4/18 receiving on 6 targets but he luckily scored a garbage-time TD and a 2-point conversion to finish with 13.8 FP. He posted a combined 16/295/2 receiving on 21 targets in his last two full games with Stroud in Weeks 12-13. The Titans are giving up the most receiving YPG (134.9) and the most receptions (161) to receivers aligned out wide, per Brolley’s Week 17 Game Hub.

How does “Zamir White: Best Ball League-Winner” sound? White has now put performances of 17.5 PPR FP and 14.5 PPR FP in back-to-back weeks without Josh Jacobs (quad, illness). Jacobs is out this week and the Colts just gave up a season-high 165 non-scramble rush yards to the Falcons, and their 2.28 aYBC/A allowed on such runs the last five weeks is 4th-most in the NFL, per Dolan’s Week 17 Mismatch Report.

 Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes's IDP Prop bets for Week 17.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️ 

Las Vegas Raiders (12%) - Over the past three weeks, The Raiders have been the number one DST, averaging 19.3 points per game - featuring 12 sacks, two interceptions, five fumble recoveries, and four touchdowns. This week, they’ll play the Indianapolis Colts & Minshew.

Chicago Bears (33%) – Coming off a down performance in Week 16, it’s a bounceback spot at home for Chicago against our old pal “Hospital Ball” Heinicke. Chicago hasn’t allowed over 20 points since Week 11. They should be a stout option for streamers in championship week.

DFS

Don’t Call It A Comeback

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown & Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells are a must-read.

Brock Purdy ($7,000) [11%] – Purdy is coming off the worst game of his professional career, but you really couldn’t dream up a better matchup for a bounce-back. Washington is the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing passers (+6.6 FPG), allowing the league’s highest passer rating (102.9), the 4th-most YPA (7.7), and the most passing TDs (33), per Barrett’s Week 17 DFS Breakdown.

Demario Douglas ($4,300) [23%] – Douglas has seen 7 > 7 > 9 > 9 > 5 > 8 targets over his last 6 games. And in one of those 9-target games, he suffered an injury and played on only 49% of the team’s snaps… Douglas is the Patriots’ new Jakobi Meyers. He has zero touchdowns this year, and his upside is minimal, but he’s a fantastic high-floor value vs the Bills, per Barrett’s Week 17 DFS Breakdown.

Gerald Everett ($3,500) [22%] – Everett is averaging 12.7 XFP/G and 8.0 targets per game in Easton Stick’s two starts this season, marks that would both rank top-5 among TEs over the full season. Everett’s route share jumped to a season-high 74% in Week 16, and Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer are in danger of missing. Everett is just $3,500 in the best possible schedule-adjusted matchup for TEs (+3.5 FPG), making him the top TE value and the clear cash play in Week 17, per Barrett’s Week 17 DFS Breakdown.

Chris Olave ($6,800) [11%] – Olave has seen at least 8 targets in each of his last 8 fully healthy games (averaging 10.1, 7th-most). And he’s eclipsed 90 receiving yards in each of his last 4 fully healthy games, averaging 23.0 DK FPG over this span (4th-most). He gets an ideal matchup this week, up against a Buccaneers defense that’s giving up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (+8.0) and the 6th-most FPG to opposing WR1s (18.4), per Barrett’s Week 17 DFS Breakdown.

Trey McBride ($5,900) [15%] – McBride has earned a 27% target share, 14.7 XFP/G, and 71.6 receiving YPG since Week 8. If treated as a WR, those marks would rank 10th, 19th, and 18th – yet McBride is priced as the WR25. He’s the best value for those who find room to pay up at the position in a top pass funnel matchup (with negative gamescript), per Barrett’s Week 17 DFS Breakdown.

Deebo Samuel owns a 3.36 YPRR and 28% target share vs two-high coverage, both are top 5 among 121 qualifiers this season. The Commanders deploy the 4th-most two-high coverage defensively (58%), so we can expect some fireworks, per Spanola’s Week 17 Coverage Shells.

📱 Tweets

Aaron Rodgers, such a great friend.

Should the Browns be a higher favorite to win the Super Bowl?

Best Ball 🤝 No Country for Old Men

INJURY REPORT

Stars On The Mend

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risks for Week 17.

Last week, Edwin highlighted why you should keep an eye on Pittman. This week:

Jaylen Waddle (Ankle). Waddle is out this weekend as he tends to a high-ankle sprain.

Josh Jacobs (Quad). Jacobs has a nagging Quad injury and is OUT for this weekend. Zamir White has been great in his absence, so the Raiders can be patient with Jacobs.

Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder). A true toss-up, it will come down to a game-time decision if Chase gets in the game. Pay close attention.

Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). Lawrence has been ruled out of their matchup ahead of Week 17, so if you need a QB, look to the waiver wire.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our Week 17 projections and rankings are accessible to FantasyPoints subscribers:

• 2023 Week 17 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

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