Happy Holidays and welcome to Week 16! We found the best insights for the semi-finals week to ensure Santa leaves a fantasy finals appearance under your tree 👀

Subscribing next season? Our EARLY BIRD subscription discounts are now live 👀 

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— SB

MARKET CHECK

EVERYTHING REPORT

Thunder & Lightning Backfield

In a 25-point victory against the Broncos (game script perfectly suited for David Montgomery), Jahmyr Gibbs out-scored Montgomery 24.8 to 10.2. Their usage (31 snaps vs. 33) and volume (10.5 XFP vs. 12.4) were much closer and actually in Montgomery’s favor, but Scott is still chalking this (46% share of the backfield XFP) up as a big win for Gibbs.

It’s encouraging to know Gibb’s floor is this high in games with gamescripts antithetical to his supposed skillset. Since Montgomery returned in Week 10, Gibbs ranks 16th in XFP/G (well ahead of Montgomery, who ranks 33rd) and 8th in FPG (17.9). This is what we imagined on draft day.

Once Sam Howell was benched for Jacoby Brissett, Brissett attempted only 10 passes but completed 8 for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns. Terry McLaurin was targeted 3 times (actually 4 if we count an end zone target negated due to penalty), catching all 3 for 93 yards (75% YMS) and 1 touchdown. He finished the day with a season-high 26.1 fantasy points. If Brissett plays again this week, I do think we should be viewing this as a massive upgrade for McLaurin.

Over the last two weeks, Isaiah Likely has run a route on 85% of the team’s dropbacks, averaging 6.5 targets, 76.5 YPG, and 18.7 FPG. Among all TEs, those numbers rank 1st-, 8th-, 3rd-, and 5th,-best, and Likely also lead Baltimore in targets and receiving yards over this span. Lamar loves his tight ends.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 16 Everything Report.

START/SITS

Semi-Final Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 16.

Start Jonathan Taylor. He’s baaack. If you made it this far without Taylor, he’s back in your lineups as an upside RB2 at the absolute worst. Taylor returned to full practice on Wednesday. Zack Moss (forearm) is out. Taylor averaged 17.2 carries and 75.4 rushing yards per game in his five starts in Weeks 7-12.

Start Calvin Ridley. Just 12 of his 25 targets have been deemed catchable by our team over the last two weeks, but Ridley leads the team in first-read targets (29.5% share) without Christian Kirk. The Buccaneers have allowed a league-high 191 yards per game to opposing receivers over the last five weeks.

Start Amari Cooper. He’s seen 27-of-104 targets from Joe Flacco when they’ve shared the field for a strong 25.9% share. He’s turned those looks into 14/220/1 receiving. The Texans have allowed the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+7.8) to opposing receivers since Week 10. Cooper is a volume-based WR2 at worst.

Sit Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt. Over their last five games together, Ford is averaging 9.9 Half-PPR points per game. Hunt (4.9 FPG) continues to siphon away almost all of the red-zone work. Over the last three weeks, Hunt has seven carries inside-the-20 while Ford has just 3. The Texans are holding opposing run games to 3.19 YPC (2nd-fewest) and a lowly 42.9% success rate (5th-fewest).

Sit Drake London. London crashed back down against the Panthers for just 2/24 receiving (on 3 targets). The Colts are giving up the 12th-most yards per game to opposing outside receivers (120.4), but Heinicke is less accurate than Ridder in a rough coverage matchup. Boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX.

Start DeAndre Hopkins. In five full starts with Ryan Tannehill (this week’s starter), Hopkins saw a whopping 36.5% of the first read targets and 43% of the Titans air yards. That’s right in line with where his role has been with Levis under center (33.7% of first read targets | 46% of the air yards). Nuk is this entire passing offense.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (and see why he’s flexing Ty Chandler and Chuba Hubbard)

Mike Evans found his way back into the end zone last week on his way to posting 4/57/1 receiving. He’s scored in 10-of-14 games with 11 scores overall, which has propelled him to 12.7+ FP 11 times. The Jaguars deploy the fourth-highest rate of zone coverage (79.8%), and Evans owns team-bests in YPRR (2.60) and target share (23.1%) on 415 routes against zone coverage. The Jaguars are giving up the fifth-most receiving YPG (126.9) and the third-most receiving TDs (12) to WRs aligned out wide, per Brolley’s Week 16 Game Hub.

Shadow Alert! L’Jarius Sneed vs Davante Adams. In Week 12, Sneed matched up with Adams on 83.8% of his routes, which is the most he’s faced any individual receiver this season, but he also gave up the most catches (5) and yards (73) to any receiver he’s seen this year. Sneed’s becoming one of the more respected corners in the league, but it’s not a reason to bench Adams, who still carries WR1 upside, per Dolan’s Week 16 Mismatch Report.

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes's IDP Prop bets for Week 16.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️ 

Washington Commanders (14%) – NYJ gave up six sacks and four turnovers last week vs Miami. They scored zero points. This pathetic Jets offense has scored seven points or less in five of their last seven games. Washington is bad, but the Jets are worse.

Denver Broncos (47%) – A date in Mile-High with the Patriots is the ultimate get-right. New England allows the fourth most fantasy points to opposing DSTs, this Pats team can’t throw the football. They should cause Zappe to make mistakes.

In case you missed it, Underdog’s promotion has Lebron James needing just one point to hit.

It gets better. If you haven’t tried Underdog yet, today is your lucky day. Use code FANTASYPTS to get a deposit match up to $100.

DFS

Fields of Dreams

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown, Jake Tribbey’s Christmas Day NFL DFS Breakdown and Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells are must-reads:

Justin Fields ($7,100) [15%] – Against bottom-10 defenses, Justin Fields averages an obscene 28.7 DK FPG! Across his other 5 fully healthy games, he averages just 12.5 DK FPG. Good news this week – Fields faces an Arizona defense that ranks 5th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to QBs (+3.1), and 3rd-worst over the last 5 weeks (+8.8)… Fields is also exceedingly pressure-sensitive, and the Cardinals rank worst in pressure rate over the last 5 weeks, per Barrett’s Week 16 DFS Breakdown.

Rashee Rice ($6,500) – Rice is the best WR play on the slate, and you could argue it isn’t close. Rice’s route share has ballooned up to 80.2% over the last two weeks (up from 43.8%). He’s led the team in targets in four straight games. He’s also earned 63% of Kansas City’s designed targets since Week 10… since the Chiefs run more designed throws near the goal line than any other team, this is massive, per Tribbey’s Christmas Day NFL DFS Breakdown.

Josh Jacobs ($6,300) – Since Antonio Pierce took over as the Raiders’ interim HC, Jacobs has gone over 95 rushing yards and earned at least 20 carries in 60% of his games, compared to 0% with Josh McDaniels. Jacobs is the focal point of the offense when healthy. He still carries some serious game script dependency and will need the Raiders’ offense to show up in some capacity to win you a tournament, per Tribbey’s Christmas Day NFL DFS Breakdown.

AJ Brown owns the league’s highest target share (37%), first-read share (47%), and receiving yards share (51%) vs single-high coverage this season, while the Giants deploy single-high at a top-ten rate among defenses (58%). The Birds are looking for a get-right game, which will likely flow through Brown, per Spanola’s Week 16 Coverage Shells.

PLAYOFF FEATURE

Consistent Weapons In Miami

Tua Tagovailoa throws 73% of his passes on his first read or designed throws, 3rd highest in the NFL.

Tyreek Hill was out this week, and Jaylen Waddle had a huge game with eight catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. This went under the radar for many people, but it shouldn’t have.

We know the Miami passing offense is awesome for fantasy, largely because of Tyreek. However, Waddle is also a very good NFL receiver, and the way the Miami offense is designed is to get the ball out of Tua’s hands on his first read.

Tua has the 2nd highest FP/DB when throwing on his first read, and the 2nd highest Passer Rating. This is an important reminder of how valuable being the first read in certain offenses can be so important

Waddle saw 38% of the team’s first read targets this past week, which he has only done one other time this season.

A few other QBs that are heavily reliant on first-read throws: Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, and Dak Prescott, per Wecht’s Week 15 Five Stats To Know.

📱 Tweets

You might want to shy away from Drake London if possible.

Was Julio better than Megatron? Scott Barrett seems to think so…

Best Ball is a different beast.

INJURY REPORT

Concussion Protocols

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risks for Week 16.

Last week, Edwin highlighted why you should wait on Trevor Lawrence. This week:

Trevor Lawrence (concussion). Lawrence has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol and is traveling to Tampa with the team. It’s not definite that he plays, but if he does, there’s a 33% reinjury rate and an increase in turnover-worthy plays by about 60%. Still, this is a good landing spot for Lawrence, but there may be better and safer options on the waiver wire.

Jonathan Taylor (thumb). JT is back and will likely see a decent workload due to Zack Moss’ absence. JT should be in all lineups from a season-long perspective, but it should be stated he is not 100%. Landing on the thumb wrong, jamming it into a defender's facemask, or otherwise aggravating the thumb is in play.

Michael Pittman (concussion). Pittman initially cleared protocol on Friday and traveled with the team, but he developed symptoms that placed him back into concussion protocol on Saturday. He’s out.

Nico Collins (calf). Collins says he’s going to play this week. Keep in mind calf injuries have a high recurrence rate that he’s already dealing with, making him a high-risk start even if he plays. With Case Keenum at the helm, Collins is already volatile as it is.

Isiah Pacheco (shoulder). Pacheco is back this week, and with Jerick McKinnon ailing with a groin injury, he’ll likely pick up where he left off. He hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down despite the shoulder injury that has lingered since his first procedure. Reaggravating the shoulder is in play here, but season-long players need to slot him into every lineup.

Read Dr. Edin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30 am inactives here: Week 16 Injury Report.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our Week 16 projections and rankings are accessible to FantasyPoints subscribers:

• 2023 Week 16 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

Over the past week, we’ve published 5+ articles per day. Subscribers call FantasyPoints subscription plans the “best value in the industry”. Get access to the Latest FantasyPoints Articles👇️ 

View our NFL Premium Plan and NFL Standard Plan.

The Fantasy Points Data Suite is also available at a 75% discount for a limited time.

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup. If you never want to miss a Fantasy Points article again, hit subscribe below.

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.