Welcome to Week 11. Some of you just lost Mark Andrews and Joe Burrow, while others are still counting on Tony Pollard. It’s not easy out there.

This week, we’ll be without Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara and Rhamondre Stevenson. No worries. We’ve got you. Unless you took zero RB too far, in which case you’re combing the desert.

Subscribers, join our Discord — if you’re not in there already - for personal start/sit questions & much more.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

MARKET CHECK

EVERYTHING REPORT

Jameis Is Fantasy Gold

Jameis Winston was the cure to what ailed Chris Olave. Olave had failed to lead New Orleans’ receivers in fantasy points scored in six straight games – scoring less than Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill, multiple times. 

Through the first 2.5 quarters of last week’s game, Olave earned just 1 target (5.6% target share). Then, Derek Carr suffered a shoulder injury, and Jameis Winston came in to replace him, playing only one full quarter plus two drives. In that span, Olave caught 5 of 8 targets (32.0% target share) for 79 yards and a score.

Unfortunately, New Orleans has their bye this week, giving Carr ample time to rest up and get healthy. But there’s still a decent chance New Orleans does the right thing here; admit their mistake and bench Carr for Winston.

Something is brewing in Arizona. In Kyler Murray’s return to football - 11 months removed from ACL surgery - he threw for 249 yards (2nd-most by any Arizona QB this season) while adding 33 rushing yards and a score on 6 carries. He finished the week as QB13 with 18.3 fantasy points. Most importantly, Murray looked awesome and fully back. He’s an easy QB1 the rest of the way.

Trey McBride ranks behind only Travis Kelce in YPRR (2.56) and TPRR (0.29). Over the last three weeks (without Zach Ertz), McBride averages 71.3 air yards per game on a 31.5% target share. If over the full season, those numbers would rank (respectively) 1st among all TEs and 1st among all players. Needless to say, he’s at worst a mid-range TE1 until further notice.

Wherever you have Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked, it’s too low. ARSB needs to be in the same conversation as Justin Jefferson. Or rather, it’s weird that we don’t view the Sun God as essentially equivalent to 96% of Jefferson at (typically) 85% of the DFS salary. And St. Brown might be playing his best football yet. He’s hit 100 receiving yards in 6 of his last 6 fully healthy games and averages 12.8 targets per game over his last 5 fully healthy games. He’s fallen short of 18.0 DK fantasy points only once this year, and it was a game in which he scored 13.8 in the first half (on pace for 27.6) before injury.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 11 Everything Report.

START/SITS

Changing The Guard

Start C.J. Stroud. The Texans have finally leaned in on Stroud and the passing game, and the results are stellar. Over the last two weeks, Houston ranks 5th and 10th in pass rate over expectation, and Stroud has delivered to the tune of 470 yards (on 42 attempts) and 356 yards (on 39 attempts). Not bad! Stroud has finished as a top-12 scoring QB in six of his last 8 starts. This week, he catches a Cardinals secondary allowing the 5th-most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.41).

Start Terry McLaurin. Over the last three weeks, Washington ranks first (+19%), third (+11%), and first (+13%) league-wide in pass rate over expectation. As a result, McLaurin is getting career-best volume with eight or more targets in 6 of his last 7 games. He went for 6/90 receiving vs. the Giants in Week 7. No team plays more man coverage than the Giants (42.3%), and McLaurin (28) easily leads the Commanders in targets vs. man ahead of Logan Thomas (17) and Curtis Samuel (16).

Start Christian Kirk. After his weird Week 1 no-show, Kirk has turned into the only consistent piece of this passing game. For fantasy, he’s finished as a top-25 scoring wide receiver in seven of his last 8 games. The Titans are allowing 15.4 receptions per game to WRs (2nd-most).

Sit Jakobi Meyers. Meyers’ season is trending down with the QB change. In three games with O’Connell, he’s tallied just 2/33, 2/38, and 2/21. Overall, Meyers’ target share has dipped from 26% with Garoppolo to a lowly 12% with O’Connell.

Sit Gabe Davis. In his last three meetings with the Jets, Davis has 2/33, 3/31, and 2/32 receiving on 5, 4, and 5 targets. That’s so Gabe.

Sit Amari Cooper. The QB change from Watson to Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a massive bummer for Cooper. In 5 full games with Watson under center, Cooper had 3/37, 7/90, 7/116/1, 5/139/1, and 6/98 receiving. In four games without Watson, the Browns top receiver has caught just 13-of-33 targets. Yikes. Back in Week 4, our collection team charted Thompson-Robinson as off-target on a whopping 32% of his throws. Just 56.8% of his passes were catchable. Cooper is a volatile WR3.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (see why he’s flexing Marquise Brown and Adam Thielen).

Cooper Kupp returns? He has just 8/98 receiving on 24 targets over the last three weeks after exploding for 15/266/1 receiving on 21 targets in his first two games. The good news is that Stafford will return, and Kupp is averaging a healthy 3.19 YPRR on a 25.5% target share on 91 routes against zone coverage. The Seahawks are giving up the third-most receptions (83) and the fifth-most receiving YPG (94.3) to receivers aligned in the slot and we should see a return to form, per Tom Brolley’s Week 11 Game Hub. 

Dolphins OL vs. Raiders DL featuring the return of De’Von Achane. As a reminder, Achane led this backfield by a slim margin in carries (37 to 30) and routes (48% share to 40% for Mostert) in Weeks 3-5. Most importantly, Achane was the clear lead back in the red zone. In their three games together, Achane out-snapped Mostert by a 65% to 30% margin inside-the-10. Achane had 7 carries (and 4 targets) inside-the-10 in just 3 games.

The Dolphins feature our #2 Rush Grade of the week in this matchup with the Raiders, who have surrendered by far a league-high 2.34 adjusted yards before contact per attempt over the last five weeks. That’s a uniquely bad matchup against a Miami team that typically runs on everyone. Do keep in mind that Miami’s interior offensive line has been banged up of late, so we need to keep an eye on that coming out of the bye, per Joe Dolan’s Week 11 Mismatch Report.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️

Miami Dolphins (38%) vs. LV - The Dolphins are getting healthy on defense and they’ve allowed just 15.5 points on average at Hard Rock Stadium. Vegas is a top-10 offense in points allowed to opposing D/STs. Rookie QB on the road vs a team coming off a bye. Smash.

Washington Commanders (21%) vs. NYG - This is simple. DeVito isn’t an NFL QB. DeVito threw for 86 yards on Sunday, most of which came in garbage time against Dallas backups. He took five sacks and threw a pick. Washington can duplicate those numbers. 

DFS

Return of The King

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown, Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells and Jake Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall and DFS Values are must-reads:

De’Von Achane has been activated off IR. His Week 10 workload is uncertain, sure, but it’s certainly encouraging that HC Mike McDaniel confirmed Achane’s knee injury was a sprain rather than a tear. Remember that Achane averaged an absurd 33.6 FPG and 12.3 YPC during the three games he earned multiple carries before going on IR. He’s an incredible upside play at $6,600 (RB9) on DraftKings, per Tribbey’s Week 11 DFS Study Hall. 

Brian Robinson currently ranks as fantasy football’s RB6, but is priced as just the RB17 on this week’s slate. In victories, Robinson is averaging 17.2 FPG, +4.8 more than he’s averaging in losses. Good news this week – Washington is favored by 9.0 points against a Giants defense that ranks 3rd-worst in schedule-adjusted rushing FPG to opposing RBs (+3.2). And if his newfound bump in target volume is at all sticky, Robinson offers underrated break-the-slate upside. Update: Antonio Gibson is out. LFGGGG!!! All via Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

Evan Engram (11.3 XFP/G) has seen nearly identical usage to both Christian Kirk (11.3 XFP/G) and Calvin Ridley (12.4 XFP/G) since Week 6. Engram ($4,300) is over $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings than both Ridley ($5,400) and Kirk ($6,000). And Engram shouldn’t draw much ownership as he’s in the same price range as Trey McBride, per Tribbey’s Week 11 DFS Study Hall. 

Jayden Reed is the top usage-based DFS value among Green Bay WRs (2.6X). Over the last four weeks, he has led the Packers’ pass catchers in FPG (12.5) and FP/RR (0.55). He feels sneaky, per Tribbey’s Week 11 DFS Study Hall.

More good signs for Reed? The Packers WR leads the team with a 2.23 YPRR vs two-high defenses, which ranks 16th out of 122 qualifiers this season. This week, he faces a Chargers team deploying two-high at the 6th highest rate in the NFL (56%), per Spanola’s Coverage Shells.

Devin Singletary was a highest-end bell cow last week, handling 60 of 74 snaps. For perspective, only 12 other RBs have seen at least 60 snaps in any game this season. The Texans have the 3rd highest implied point total of the week (26.0), plus a favorable 5.0 point spread. Arizona is giving up the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+4.3), and Singletary’s rushing yardage prop is the highest of any RB on the week (77.5) (No joke, it’s even +10 more than Travis Etienne or Christian McCaffrey), via Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

TRADES & BETS

Bijan Down The Stretch

Buy Bijan Robinson. The Bijan manager in your league may be inclined to sell high after a nice game in Week 11. Bijan’s off Week 11, so you’d have to have another option yourself. The Falcons also have a solid stretch of games in Weeks 13-17: at NYJ, vs. TB, at Car, vs. Ind, and at Chi, per Hansen’s Week 11 Players to Trade/Trade For.

Rachaad White is surging. White's elite usage (his 18.3 XFP/G now ranks 5th among RBs over the past month) makes up for any inefficiency. He’s also received all but one of the Buccaneers' rush attempts inside the 10-yard line. Even if he doesn't score, he gets it done in the receiving game (61.7% route share, RB4) and showcases elusiveness in space (10.6 YAC/R, RB5). White recently has both the workload and the fantasy output of a bonafide RB1, and it's hard not to rank him accordingly, per Heath’s Week 11 Big Board.

12 WRs have a first-read target share at or above 35% in 2023. Only three WRs hit that mark in 2021, and four hit it last season. WR is DEEP. Other receivers who are just short of 35% but would have been included at different times of the season: Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, and Adam Thielen.

We need to raise our expectations of the types of ceilings these elite WRs can reach and accept there are now more than there has been in some time, per Wecht’s Five Stats To Know From Week 10.

Props & Odds

Josh Allen under 254.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings). Allen has had 239 or fewer yards against NYJ in 4 straight games, while the Jets are allowing the 2nd-fewest passing YPG (185.2) to QBs and has allowed 255 or fewer yards in 8-of-9 games. With OC Dorsey fired and HC McDermott likely to have more influence on play-calling (more running), Brolley’s going under, per Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 11.

Terry McLaurin over 57.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings). 63+ yards in 4 of last 5 games, McLaurin faces a NYG team allowing the 6th-most receiving YPG (188.3) to WRs, including 6/90 against NYG in W7. Terry has 70+ yards in all 8 games he’s played against NYG, per Brolley’s Best Bets.

DeVonta Smith over 57.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings). Smith averaged 5.0/84.0 receiving per game on 8.4 targets with Goedert out in 2022, has the best matchup per our WR/CB tool projecting a Snead shadow for AJ Brown. Smith went 7/100 receiving in this matchup in the Super Bowl, per Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 11.

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop bets for Week 11.

📱 Tweets

Trey McBride is looking like a league winner for TE-needy teams.

Denver really needs to get Marvin Mims involved.

Can Tank Dell really get better than he’s already been?

INJURY REPORT

What A Season

Last week, Edwin highlighted why David Montgomery was a full-go. This week:

Mark Andrews: Suffered a fibula fracture. He's a big boy which could impact his return (potentially slower). Don't have TEs handy but here's a list of WRs who also suffered this injury along w/ time missed: P. Dorsett: 7 weeks. R. Cobb: 10 weeks.

Unsure what to make of Achane?

Alexander Mattison: He suffered a concussion in Week 10. He has a history, with 2020 being his first documented head injury. In theory, he’s far enough removed for that not to play a factor but brain injuries are complex. The best-case scenario for Mattison is a similar path that Gus Edwards took in Week 4, where he gets through protocol without issues. However, Ty Chandler is a good pickup in case Mattison can’t go.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our Week 11 projections and rankings are accessible to FantasyPoints subscribers:

• 2023 Week 11 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

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