Welcome to Week 10. It’s time for that playoff push. But with four startable QBs on the bye (Hurts, Stafford, Mahomes and Tua), you might have found yourself in the depths of the waiver wire.

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— JR

MARKET CHECK

EVERYTHING REPORT

Houston, We Have Liftoff

Invest in the Texans passing attack, it may have league-winning potential. Just 13th in pass attempts (279), Stroud now ranks 3rd among all QBs in passing YPG (283.8) and 4th in FPG (20.1). For perspective, 20.1 FPG ranks 4th-most of any rookie QB all-time, behind only Deshaun Watson (24.1), Cam Newton (23.1), Justin Herbert (22.2), and Robert Griffin III (21.2). He’s on pace for over 4,800 yards, 30 TDs and 2 INTs… stud.

And Houston ranks 3rd-best in yards per pass attempt (9.04) and 3rd-worst in yards per carry (3.25). If they move away from their run-heavy scripting, Stroud and his WR/TEs possess league-winning ability. This week, Scott views Schultz as a top-5 fantasy TE and Dell as a higher-end WR2 with Collins out, with upside for more.

Kyler Murray was a free QB1 you landed off waivers. From Weeks 2-8, Josh Dobbs averaged 19.5 FPG (~QB9) and 0.52 FP/DB (~QB10). If Dobbs could do that, it’s hard to imagine Murray can’t improve upon those numbers. In other words, Scott’s expecting low-end QB1 production at worst from Murray throughout the remainder of the season. But probably high-end QB2 production this week, as he shakes off the rust in a neutral-at-best matchup against the Falcons.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Week 9 usage possibly hints at an impending breakout. JSN led the Seahawks in receiving yards last week (63) and had twice as many catches (6) as the next-closest Seattle receiver. Not only that, but he finished the week with an eye-popping 41.2% first-read target share, which ranked 5th-most among all receivers.

This week, he goes up against a Washington defense that's giving up a league-high +10.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs and plays two-high coverage at the 5th-highest rate in the league (57%). That feels important, because JSN leads Seattle’s WRs in YPRR against two-high coverage (1.71).

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 10 Everything Report.

START/SITS

In Pittman We Trust

Start Michael Pittman. In five starts with Minshew, Pittman has tallied 9/77, 2/83/1, 9/109, 8/40/1, and 8/64 receiving. He’s not dipped below a 20% target share in a single game this season, and he’s seen at least 24% of the targets from Minshew in 4-of-5 contests. Josh Downs (knee) is expected to play, but tried to play through this injury last week and left after 12 snaps.

Start Brock Purdy. After looking unstoppable vs. Dallas, interception luck has run out for Purdy. He has 5 INTs in his last three starts. This is after he threw just 3 INTs across 380 pass attempts in his previous 13 games. When he’s not pressured, Purdy ranks 8th in completions over expectation (+6.1%), and he leads the entire league in YPA (10.1). The Jaguars are pressuring QBs at the 5th-lowest rate (29.7%).

Start Taysom Hill. Over the last three weeks, Hill has 25/133/3 rushing, 9/77/1 receiving (11 targets), and he’s completed two passes (1 TD) for 47 yards. The best-ball legend is doing it again. Hill leads the Saints in carries (16) over Kamara (13) in the red-zone in their last 3 games.

Start Garrett Wilson. His quarterback and playcaller are the worst in the league, but all he does is get open. He has 7 or more targets in seven straight games, and he’s averaging 73.6 yards on 10.3 targets per contest in this stretch. Wilson leads all players in first-read target share (42.9%) by a small margin over AJ Brown (41.6%).

Sit Kyle Pitts. After it seemed like he was trending upwards, Pitts’ role has taken a backseat to… Van Jefferson. Over the last four weeks, Pitts has run a route on just 60% of the pass plays. Before the Falcons added Jefferson to the offense, Pitts ran a route on 81% of the dropbacks in Weeks 1-5. Jonnu Smith housed a screen last week, but he’s a part-timer, too: Smith has run a route on 56% of the pass plays over the last four games.

Sit George Pickens. When Diontae Johnson plays, Pickens’ target share dips to 17.4%. That’s just not enough to get it done with Kenny Pickett at QB. Just 61% of Pickens’ targets have been deemed catchable over the last three weeks. His high average depth of target (14.1 yards) has a lot to do with the low catchable rate, however, Pickett sailed the ball a mile over Pickens’ head on a shallow crosser (that would have gained 20+ yards) last week.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (and see why he’s flexing Demario Douglas and Tyler Allgeier).

Rachaad White is turning the corner. Last week, he finished with 20/73/2 rushing with a pair of 1-yard scores, adding 4/46 receiving for a Week 9-best 27.9 FP. His best performances as a receiver have each come in the last three weeks as he’s caught all 17 of his targets for 181 yards in Weeks 7-9. White has caught 33-of-34 targets for a ridiculous 97.1% catch rate, which would best James Conner’s single-season catch rate record of 94.9% set in 2021.

White has reached 16+ touches in 7-of-8 games and he has zero pressure from the runners behind him. The Titans were just ripped by Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren for a combined 27/157/1 rushing and 5/32 receiving, per Tom Brolley’s Week 10 Game Hub. 

Brandon Aiyuk will attack Tyson Campbell. Over the last five weeks, the Jags have represented the NFL’s easiest matchup for outside WRs by fantasy production (+12.6 schedule-adjusted FPG), though it’s important to note that Campbell hasn’t played since Week 6 (injury), which certainly affects the numbers. Campbell also gave a touchdown each to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in Week 5, which is also factored into the numbers. A potentially hobbled Campbell is someone the 49ers will look to attack, per Joe Dolan’s Week 10 Mismatch Report. 

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️

Detroit Lions (31%) vs. LAC - Some might see Justin Herbert on the other side and click elsewhere, but Detroit is playing defense at a high level and Herbert can make mistakes. Since Week 6, Detroit has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points, per Fantasy Points Data.

Seattle Seahawks (41%) vs. WAS - The Commanders, even in a win vs. New England, gave up three sacks and turned the ball over twice. Sam Howell is someone we want to key on every single time we add a D/ST. I think Seattle bounces back in a big way.

DFS

Ohio vs The World

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown, Jake Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall and DFS Values are must-reads:

Be careful with Baltimore. The Browns have an incredible defense: the 4th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for QBs (-3.4 FPG), the 2nd-toughest for RBs (-4.2 FPG), 3rd-toughest for WRs (-8.1 FPG), and toughest for TEs (-5.3 FPG). A brutal fantasy matchup for all Ravens playmakers, per Tribbey’s Week 10 DFS Study Hall. 

Tony Pollard is no doubt due, and this could be the ultimate get-right spot, given Dallas’ slate-high 28.0-point implied total against Tommy DeVito’s Giants… That said, all of the upside seems more than baked into his projected ownership (24%), and the 17.0-point spread in Dallas’ favor speaks to exactly what has plagued Pollard all year, per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

Calvin Ridley has been inconsistent, scoring double-digit DraftKings points in just half of his games. But Ridley has seen some consistency in favorable matchups, averaging 16.0 DraftKings FPG and 9.7 targets per game in his three games against teams that rank among the 10-softest schedule-adjusted matchups for opposing outside WRs. San Francisco falls into that category, and Jacksonville should be forced to throw in this game as 3.0-point underdogs. Ridley is the cheapest he’s been on both sites, per Tribbey’s Week 10 DFS Values.

TJ Hockenson’s workload was as strong as ever once Josh Dobbs came into the game in Week 9. Per four quarters, Hockenson posted 22.5 XFP – the 3rd-best workload by any TE in any game this season. Overall, he finished the week with 12 targets (2nd-most of any player), and a 33.3% target share (4th-most of any receiver). He’s an outstanding value this week, even if his rib injury limits his overall efficiency, per Tribbey’s Week 10 DFS Values.

Scott wrote a bunch of words earlier in the week (here) on why Diontae Johnson is one of the best overall values of the entire slate. And why he actually has GPP-winning upside now in this new role. And Scott likes him even more today than earlier in the week, with Jaire Alexander (shoulder) likely to sit out, per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

TRADES & BETS

Johnny Touchdown

Jonathan Taylor Time. Taylor was finally used as an unchallenged bell-cow in Week 9, ceding only 7 touches to Zack Moss and running a route on 67.9% of the Colts' dropbacks (RB1). Even with the committee, Taylor has averaged 15.8 XFP/G over the past month (RB9) and projects even better the rest of the way. He also faces the Raiders in Week 17, a top-5 matchup by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to RBs, per Heath’s Week 10 Big Board. 

Trade for Hollywood Brown. A lot of the poor production is a function of bad matchups, which is why we listed Hollywood on this list weeks ago, but things are looking up now while his value is down. He’s getting Kyler Murray back, which is massive, and his remaining schedule is pretty, pretty good: vs. Atl, at Hou, vs. LAR, at Pit, bye, vs. SF, at Chi, and at Phi, so it’s time to buy, per Hansen’s Week 10 Players to Trade/Trade For.

Bet on Skinny Batman. When Dallas Goedert missed time last season, DeVonta Smith led the Eagles in target share, air yard share and 1st-read target share. We have started to see Smith get more involved in the Eagles’ offense recently — A.J. Brown has been on a historic heater to put himself into Offensive Player of the Year consideration, so it’s hard to blame Jalen Hurts for throwing him the ball. But now, with Goedert out and tough opponents on the horizon they’ll need to put up points to win, per Whect’s Five Stats To Know From Week 9. 

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop bets for Week 10.

Props & Odds

Deebo Samuel over 45.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365) – “Full-go” out of the bye. Has gone over 55 yards in 4/4, non-inured games this season. Deebo typically feasts vs. zone. Jags play 80% zone, and Deebo is shredding zone to the tune of 12/154 receiving on 14 targets (3.08 YPRR). Median projection 58.5.Per Barfield’s Best Bets, Week 10.

Tank Dell over 54.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) - 57+ yards in 4 of last 6 games, Nico likely to miss, CIN is allowing 14.8 YPR and the 14th-most receiving YPG (157.0) to WRs, CIN is allowing 5th-most YPRR (2.40) and a league-high 16.8 YPR to receivers aligned on the perimeter, per Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 10. 

Alvin Kamara under 51.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM) - FP Projection: 49 yards, averaging 3.6 YPC, 9/26 rushing on a season-low 49% snap share last week with NO giving more work to Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams, MIN allowing 4th-fewest YPC (3.5) and 5th-fewest rushing YPG (84.4) since W3, per Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 10.

📱 Tweets

Scoring is way down this year… is this why my fantasy team sucks?

Quentin Johnston is not in good company.

Don’t miss these 10 important stats for Ryan’s rest-of-season rankings

INJURY REPORT

Studs vs Injuries

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risk for Week 10.

Last week, Edwin highlighted why you should wait on Stafford and his weapons. This week:

Justin Jefferson: What you need to know about J.J. is that the re-injury rate is ~30%. Still, the risk is worth the reward to wait on Jefferson. Clinically, very few athletes take longer than 6 weeks to return from even the worst of grade II tears. Given the length of time he was down and his young age, he should be able to bounce back at near full strength. A re-injury isn’t out of the cards, but Jefferson is worth the risk.

Keaton Mitchell: The rookie was added to the injury report with a hamstring strain (again) this week. Everybody is understandably excited about the rookie, but make no mistake that if he takes on even more work in Week 10, a reinjury to the hamstring strain is in play. So tread lightly.

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase landed hard on his back, which likely flared up the joints and muscles of his low back. Generally, if there isn’t structural damage, these only take a week or two to resolve. His post-game comments were certainly fear-inducing, but now he’s tracking to play as expected. Low back pain is tough to deal with, and he’s at risk for re-aggravation, but he should be started in all leagues if he plays. He’s a GTD. With Tee Higgins out with a hamstring strain, Chase could also be a sneaky cash play for those scared off by the injury.

David Montgomery: Montgomery carries no injury designation at this time and will likely step into a similar role he was in before this injury. However, the Lions now have the luxury of easing him in, since they’ve discovered Jahmyr Gibbs is, um, good at football. James Conner’s return from a ribs injury in 2022 is a good baseline to expect. He scored 11 PPR points but only saw about 1/3 of his carries.

Read Dr. Edwin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30 am inactives here: Week 10 Injury Report.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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• 2023 Week 10 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

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