Welcome to Week 9. We’ve got four potential game-of-the-year matchups - the first starts at 9:30 AM ET this morning, with the Chiefs taking on the Dolphins in Frankfurt. And with fantasy football playoffs closer then ever, it’s make or break time.

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— JR

MARKET CHECK

EVERYTHING REPORT

King of the North

Scott’s maintains that Tony Pollard is a massive buy-low target bound to enjoy some massive positive regression at some point soon. Yes, it’s very worrisome that all of his efficiency metrics have shifted from top-5 a season ago to bottom-10 this year. Yes, maybe he’s still not fully recovered from an offseason ankle injury.

But he’s still not ready to write Pollard off. The volume has simply been too good. Even if we should expect below-average levels of efficiency throughout the remainder of the season, it’s hard to imagine him not finishing as a high-end RB2 at worst… As for the primary culprit, blame Pollard’s down year mostly on one key factor: Dallas hasn’t played in any “normal games” this year.

Joe Burrow was a fantasy superstar from Day 1. When the Bengals signal caller is pass-heavy, good things happen. This is especially notable now, given Cincinnati’s massive +16.4% passing rate over expectation since Week 5 (highest among all teams). Burrow appears fully recovered from his calf injury – e.g. he had a near-perfect 134.8 passer rating in Week 8, he nearly had a career-high in rushing yards (43), and he made this insane play. Locked and loaded.

Zay Flowers has been overrated for about seven straight weeks. He’s not actually beating NFL CBs downfield, he’s just getting peppered with screens and other layup targets. Flowers ranks 15th among all WRs in receptions (44), but just 72nd on receptions from balls thrown five-plus yards downfield (14). You’ve been warned.

Javonte Williams has played in only 6 full games – the first 4 being losses and the latter 2 being wins. Across his last two, he averaged 21.0 carries, 3.5 targets and 15.7 FPG. In all other games, he averaged just 11.5 carries, 3.0 targets, and 7.8 FPG. Hope for more winning environments, because they may be rare.

Read Scott Barrett’s Week 9 Everything Report for insight into Will Levis and Rashid Shaheed.

START/SITS

The Boom Is Coming

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 9.

Start DK Metcalf. DK got back into the lineup last week and was immediately funnelled 14 targets. Metcalf is averaging 15.2 X/FP based on his role but is scoring just 11 FPG. Just like Jaylen Waddle last week, Metcalf is a glaring candidate for an eruption game.

Sit Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup. The Eagles have struggled to defend perimeter receivers but there isn’t enough here to get excited. Gallup has been held under 25 yards in 5-of-7 games, and while Cooks has scored in back-to-back, he has yet to see more than 18% of targets in a single game.

Start Rachaad White. This week marks the 6th time in 7 games that White’s faced a defense that is bottom-12 in YPC allowed. Houston is giving up 3.49 YPC (7th-fewest), and they may get DT Sheldon Rankins back this week. At least White has high-end passing down usage (62% route share, 4th-highest among RBs) and Baker Mayfield has the 6th-highest check-down rate (11.4%).

Start Sam Howell. Washington leads the NFL in average pass plays per game (43.6). This high volume is a big part of the reason for how he’s finished as a top-13 fantasy scorer in 6-of-8 games. Since losing CB Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon, the Patriots have allowed 7.1 passing yards per attempt over their last four games.

Start Chris Olave. Once again, Olave “could have” posted a monster fantasy score last week. Between a ball hitting him in the helmet and Carr over-throwing him twice on deep balls, we were left with 5/46 receiving. He is the most glaring WR candidate for a get-right game in fantasy football. By XFP, Olave should be averaging 17.4 FPG (Half-PPR).

Sit Brian Robinson. It looked like we were headed towards a dreaded three-way committee here, but Chris Rodriguez did not play a single snap in Week 8. At the very least, Robinson remains a TD-dependent FLEX option. New England continues to play stifling run defense (3.31 YPC allowed 4th-fewest).

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (and see why he’s flexing Rhamondre Stevenson and Rashee Rice.

CeeDee Lamb should smash in primetime. Since losing Avonte Maddox to a torn pectoral muscle in Week 2, the Eagles have rotated through multiple slot defenders: Mario Goodrich, James Bradberry (for a spell), Eli Ricks, Bradley Roby (signed off the street, now hurt), and — most recently — rookie S Sydney Brown.

Coincidentally, the Eagles have given up the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs over the last five weeks. Lamb runs two-thirds of his routes inside and should feast against a team that has trouble defending the middle of the field, per Joe Dolan’s Week 9 Mismatch Report. 

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️

Los Angeles Chargers (26%) vs. NYJ - The Chargers are a pass funnel defense, but the Jets can’t throw the ball. The Bolts have a shot at garnering some sacks, but don’t go over expect the moon here.

Green Bay Packers (18%) vs. LAR - If we see Brett Rypien for the Rams at Lambeau, this is a go. As long as Stafford sits, expect plenty of short passes. Rypien’s longest completion on Sunday was 13 yards, and his average yards per attempt was a dismal 4.2.

DFS

Don’t Sleep on the Saints

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown, Jake Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall and DFS Values and Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells are must-reads:

Rashid Shaheed averages 2.30 YPRR and 0.44 FP/RR against zone, compared to 1.25 YPRR and 0.19 FP/RR against man. In other words, he’s twice as productive against zone coverage. The Bears run zone at a top-12 rate. Shaheed remains in play this week, despite a price bump to $4,500 on DraftKings. per Tribbey’s Week 9 DFS Study Hall.

Josh Jacobs hasn’t done anything all year, but his volume has legitimately been amazing, ranking behind only Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey in XFP/G (18.3). The Raiders aren’t expected to score very many points this week, but they are favored (by 1.5 points) against the Giants who have surrendered the 7th-most schedule-adjusted rushing FPG to opposing RBs (+1.9), per Tribbey’s Week 9 DFS Values. 

Saquon Barkley’s volume and usage have been insane since returning from injury – 28.5 carries, 4.5 targets per game. The only issue is that this might be the worst offense (and offensive line) we’ve seen in a decade. But things should get better in Week 9, with Daniel Jones back, and probably also LT Andrew Thomas and RT Evan Neal. Add to this, the matchup is great, up against an Aidan O’Connell-led Raiders team that ranks 2nd-worst in schedule-adjusted rushing FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+4.5), per Barrett’s Week 9 DFS Breakdown.

Vikings WR Jordan Addison has been a revelation so far this year and has a 3.04 YPRR vs two-high coverage, good for 4th-best among 50 qualifiers this season. The Falcons play the fourth-most two-high coverage this season (60%), making this a match-up we should target, even with a rookie QB behind center, per Spanola’s Week 9 Coverage Shells.

TRADES & BETS

Breece Lightning

Breece Hall is back. Hall emerged from the bye to a 22.2% target share (RB2). He's played on 72.7% of the Jets' red zone snaps over the last month and received all but one of the goal-line attempts. Among RBs with 50+ touches, he trails only Jaleel McLaughlin in yards after contact per touch (4.30). Only Jahmyr Gibbs and Travis Etienne have averaged more FPG than Hall since Week 5. I hope you bought Hall while you still had the chance… per Ryan Heath’s Week 9 Big Board.

Go get Jerome Ford. There’s probably a small buying opportunity here for the Browns top back, whose value has dropped due to the emergence of Kareem Hunt, whose staying power as a force all year is suspect. They have a pretty good schedule the rest of the way, so Ford might be sneaky right now, per Hansen’s Week 9 Players to Trade/Trade For. 

Over the last three weeks, the Bills RBs have combined for a 6.3% target share. James Cook has only a 3.6% target share. They also just brought in Leonard Fournette, who played a lot of passing snaps for the Buccaneers last season due to his pass blocking…Cook had a 10% target share in the first five weeks of the season. On top of the lack of receiving work, Cook has also only played on just 4 of the team’s 21 snaps inside the 10-yard line, per Wecht’s Five Stats To Know From Week 8. 

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes IDP Prop bets for Week 9.

Props & Odds

Dalton Kincaid over 34.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel). His connection with Allen has looked near perfect for the last two weeks (13/140/1 on 15 targets). The Bengals are allowing the 3rd-most yards per target (8.7) and 3rd-highest catch rate (79.7%) to TEs, per Graham Barfield’s Best Bets, Week 9.

Jayden Reed (GB) over 27.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel). Reed is projected at 49 yards and has 37+ yards in 5-of-7 games. He hit a season-high 79.6% route share in W8 and LAR is allowing the fifth-most receiving YPG (93.9) to receivers aligned in the slot, per Tom Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 9.

D’Onta Foreman (Chi) under 41.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM). Projected for 26 yards and was down to a 32% snap share with Roschon back last week. NO is allowing the third-fewest yards before contact per attempt (.87) in this week’s slate and Chicago are 7.5-point road underdogs, per Tom Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 9.

📱 Tweets

If your league mates had bad Will Levis takes… it’s time to let them know.

Trey McBride will have new QBs the next few weeks, but he had a great first start.

This is what Jordan Love’s done with the best OL in football?

INJURY REPORT

Time to Panic Get Creative

Last week, Edwin highlighted why you should wait on the Bears backfield and pay attention to Zach Charbonnet. This week:

Matthew Stafford's injury seems more serious than the Rams are letting on as of now, given the fact IR was mentioned. The last time Stafford played through this injury, he threw for 178 yards and no touchdowns. The Rams would be better suited to sit him. He shouldn't be anywhere near lineups, even if he ends up playing.

Deshaun Watson will play in Week 9 but shouldn't be near most single-QB lineups. I'm fine waiting to see what Watson is capable of doing, given he tried to return too soon last time around.

Emari Demercado's injury could lead to seeing more Keaontay Ingram. This makes Ingram a fine tournament play. James Conner is eligible to return next week.

Michael Wilson's absence moreso implicates Trey McBride, who has even less target competition. With a rookie QB starting, another safety valve/junk time extravaganza could be in store for the 2nd year breakout.

Drake London is out for Week 9. The mean missed time with a groin injury is 1-3 games across the NFL, with a median of 18 days. Among WRs, the mean is 1 missed game, and the mode is 0 missed games. London’s young age and his lack of history with soft tissue strains will undoubtedly help his cause.

Darren Waller is on IR-watch after some comments made by him and the team.

Read Dr. Edin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30 am inactives here: Week 9 Injury Report.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our Week 9 projections and rankings are accessible to FantasyPoints subscribers:

• 2023 Week 9 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

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