Welcome to Week 5. Today, two studs make their season debut (Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor) while others (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Tee Higgins) are absent.

Given how much has changed since Week 1 (especially for Jets fans, rip), it’s crazy to think we are only through a quarter of the season…

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— JR

Week 4 Game Ball

King Henry

Brett Whitefield breaks down last week’s most outstanding player.

On Derrick Henry: “One of the things that makes Henry such a monster and difficult to stop is the blend of size and speed he has — he constantly wins the corner in Tennessee’s outside zone-heavy offense. That burst was completely absent in the first three games this season. Independent of the blocking in front of him, it seemed like Henry just couldn’t quite win the footraces he was used to winning. Week 4 told a different story.”

• More forced missed tackles in Week 4 (13), than Weeks 1-3 combined (11).

• 4.41 yards after contact per carry (97 yards) in Week 4 vs. 2.59 YACO Weeks 1-3.

• 61 yards on explosive runs Week 4 vs. 41 Weeks 1-3.

Good news for Henry fans: What Brett saw (the film) and what he knows (the data) paints a very vibrant picture of Henry’s Week 4 performance, and leads Brett to believe this won’t be a one-week thing.

Throw Weeks 1-3 out — the King has returned. Read the full article here.

Everything Report

Achane: The Next Kamara?

Alvin Kamara looks like a steal at his RB26 ADP. Kamara played on 75% of the team’s snaps, handling 11 of 13 carries and 14 of 17 targets out of the backfield (35.9% team target share). His 25.9 XFP ranked 5th-best of any player in Week 4. This is legitimately rare usage for a RB.

But Kamara in Week 4 looked a lot like the Kamara of 2022. On 14 targets, he caught 13, but for only 33 total yards. This was the fewest receiving yards ever for a player with 10 or more catches in a single game. In PPR leagues, Kamara scored 21.4 fantasy points, but in standard leagues, that fell to just 8.4. Scott is cautiously optimistic Kamara will resoundingly beat his ADP, and finish as a high-end RB2 at worst.

If Jonathan Taylor really is fully healthy… He very well could become the top league-winner of the 2023 fantasy season.

Through the first four weeks of the season, the Colts have had one of the most valuable backfields in fantasy, despite feeding much lesser talents in comparison to Taylor. In fact, Taylor’s 2023 volume may even be significantly better than it was in 2021, when he finished as fantasy football’s overall RB1, averaging 22.2 FPG.

Sure, Anthony Richardson will vulture the occasional rushing touchdown. But also, hyper-mobile QBs are an efficiency cheat code for RBs – typically bolstering their ground game efficiency.

De’Von Achane might be the 2023 version of 2017 Alvin Kamara. As a rookie in 2017, Kamara cleared a 60% snap-share only once, was out-carried by Mark Ingram 230 to 120, and ranked just 24th among all RBs in touches (201). Nonetheless, he finished the season as fantasy football’s RB3, averaging 20.0 FPG.

Achane’s pace is not sustainable – 26.7 FPG on just 11.7 touches per game. But maybe he’s an outlier? Kamara has twice out-scored his XFP by more than 6.0 FPG. And Achane might also help mitigate an efficiency regression with an expanded role. Last week – in a game Raheem Mostert fumbled twice – Achane played on 66% of the team’s snaps, while also earning a 61% route share (6th-most of any RB on the week). He has the potential to break fantasy seasons.

Jake Ferguson has seen at least 7 targets in 3 of 4 games. He currently ranks behind only Travis Kelce in both TPRR (0.30) and XFP/RR (0.56). The only issue is he ranks just 32nd in route share (54%).

Find more second-half breakout candidates in Scott Barrett’s Everything Report.

Week 5 Start/Sits

Fire Up The Jets

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 5.

Start Garrett Wilson. He has been funnelled a whopping 44.1% of the first-read targets as the Jets' entire passing game revolves around him. For reference, that is the second-highest FR target share behind only Davante Adams (55%). Graham listed him as a sit for the entire season, but this matchup is too good to fade – especially since the Jets are wisely just throwing to their best player.

Flex Play: Breece Hall. It’s a matter of time before Dalvin Cook gets phased out; Cook is averaging 2.13 yards after contact and 0.13 missed tackles forced per carry, compared to 5.25 YAC and 0.34 MTF per carry for Hall. Over the last two weeks, Hall (22 routes, 5 targets) has split passing down work with Michael Carter (15 routes, 4 targets).

It would be a shame if we don’t see a significant bump in Hall’s role this week because this matchup vs Denver could not be any better. Hall is a swing for the fences RB2 and upside FLEX.

Flex Play: Jordan Addison. His route share was rising Weeks 1-3 (62% > 72% > 77%) but dropped back to 67% in Week 4. He was impacted by Kirk Cousins attempting just 19 passes vs. Carolina, so we’re chasing Cousins’ volume rebounding and this high-scoring game environment for Addison to hit as a WR3/FLEX play.

Sit Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Ridder has continued to get worse by the week and he has been sacked on 12% of his dropbacks (4th-highest rate), further compounding the Falcon's offensive issues. London has seen just 13 catchable targets, 63rd among WRs. Pitts has a similar story.

Flex Play: Marquise Brown. Dobbs has shown solid chemistry with Marquise Brown as the duo have connected for 18/211/2 (on 27 targets) over the last three weeks. As expected, Hollywood is the target hog here with 33% of the first-read targets (16th). He’s a strong WR3/FLEX.

Read the full article for Graham’s explanation on why he’s sitting both Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren and Courtland Sutton, and starting Romeo Doubs & Christian Watson.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two lower-owned options 👇️ 

Detroit Lions. (DET, 11%) vs. CAR — The public perception is that the Lions defense stinks — we don’t think so. The boys from Motown have 12 sacks and forced three turnovers since their loss in Week 2. Enter a Panthers team with Bryce Young, who has been sacked 11 times in three starts. This game should perfectly fit the game script we want for a streaming defense.

Houston Texans. (HOU, 4%) @ ATL — Don’t look now, but Houston is hot. Winners of two straight and their D/ST has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of those contests. This week, the Texans travel to Atlanta. According to Fantasy Points Data, Houston owns the fourth-best pressure rate over expectation in the league. If C.J. Stroud can get Houston out to an early lead, we could see this underrated pass rush stymie Desmond Ridder and produce fantasy points.

Week 5 DFS

Moving To Austin

Calvin Austin ($3,500) is tied for the Steelers team lead in first-read targets (11) over the last two weeks. His 10.0 XFP/G over that stretch is just 2.9 XFP/G less than George Pickens (12.9 XFP/G), but Austin is $1,700 cheaper this week, per Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall.

Adam Thielen ($5,100) – Over the last three weeks, Thielen ranks 8th in XFP/G (18.1) and 8th in FPG (22.4), and yet he’s priced as just the WR22 on this week’s short slate. Thielen has run 70% of his routes from the slot, and Detroit has given up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs (+7.0). And their starting slot CB, Brian Branch, is out this week. Thielen is a “great” play this week, as opposed to being a “must-play” if Andy Dalton were starting, per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

Isaiah Pacheco earned a 65% snap share and 73% of backfield XFP in Week 4. Both of those marks were season highs. Even better, Pacheco has averaged 18.5 XFP/G over the last two weeks – that would rank 3rd-best among slate-eligible RBs over the full season. So, Pacheco’s recent usage makes his $5,700 (RB15) DraftKings price tag look a bit ridiculous. Especially since he’s playing on the team with the slate’s 2nd-highest implied total (28.0) as 3.5-point favorites, per Tribbey’s Top DFS Values.

David Montgomery ($6,600). For however long as his usage sticks, Montgomery should be valued as an every-week low-end RB1 at worst. But not this week. This week Montgomery is probably the best RB play of the slate, as 9.0-point favorites up against the league’s top run funnel defense with Jahmyr Gibbs absent; the Panthers rank 4th-best in schedule-adjusted passing FPG allowed to opposing QBs (-4.5) but 2nd-worst to RBs on the ground (+5.7), per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

Marquise Brown has an encouraging matchup ($5,000 on DK). The Bengals deploy single-high coverage at a top-five rate and carry the league’s highest defensive ADOT this season (10.7). Brown dominates ARI pass catchers in single-high first read share and is their prototypical boundary/outside WR with heavy target depth following the departure of DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. Among 175 qualifiers, Brown is tied for the fourth-highest TPRR against single-high coverage (0.38), per Spanola’s Coverage Shells.

Chris Olave ($6,900) is in consideration against this depleted NE secondary. NE allows the fourth most DK PPG to outside receivers this year (21.1) but the sixth-fewest to slot receivers (14.5). Olave has run 53% of his routes from the outside and has a 2.63 wide YPRR on the season, stronger than his 1.38 YPRR through the slot.

Further, Bill Belichick notoriously runs a lot of man coverage, and Olave leads all Saints with close to a 40% first read target share against man in 2023, per Spanola’s Coverage Shells.

Setting lineups? Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown, Jake Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall and DFS Values and Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells are must-reads.

Trades and Targets

Josh Allen Don’t Stop

Ryan Heath analyzes the rest-of-season trade value to help you nail your deals in his Week 5 Big Board.

Josh Allen moves up 13 spots. Ryan has been skeptical until now that Allen could hold on to his ceiling without running the ball as much, he is the QB1 in FPG (27.5) over the past three weeks despite logging only 10 rushing attempts in that span (tied-15th among QBs). An 11-yard touchdown run was what put Allen over the top last week, but he was also ruthlessly efficient, throwing for 320 yards and 4 TDs on just 29 dropbacks.

Jonathan Taylor is the RB6. Taylor was activated from IR this week, with coach Shane Steichen suggesting he could play as soon as Week 5. He practiced fully on Wednesday. This is quite the whiplash from when we were unsure Taylor would play at all this season without a new contract, but he has clear upside even in Indianapolis considering Zack Moss currently ranks 8th among RBs in XFP/G (18.2).

Mark Andrews drops 10 spots. Though Andrews scored multiple TDs this week, his underlying usage still wasn't great (8.6 XFP), and Zay Flowers still has more first-reads and air yards in games they've been active together. I'd be tempted to use the big week to sell for Sam LaPorta and a healthy plus.

Start James Conner. The Bengals surrendered a massive bounce-back game for Derrick Henry last week, and that has contributed to the Cardinals featuring the #2 Rush Grade of the week. OC Drew Petzing’s boys have been solid in the run game, opening a 3rd-most 2.37 aYBC/A so far this year. Defensively, the Bengals have allowed a 5th-most 1.83 aYBC/A this year, and given the state of the Bengals’ offense, James Conner should have, at minimum, a competitive gamescript in which to receive carries, per Joe Dolan’s Mismatch Report.

Acquire Dallas Goedert. He looks like dog dirt, so you’re only acquiring him for pennies on the dollar, but they do need a consistent third target, and Goedert has to be that. His next three games are against teams that are currently very giving to TEs: @LAR, @NYJ, and vs. Mia. Per John Hansen’s Players To Trade For article.

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes Week 5 IDP Preview.

📱 Tweets

Wan’Dale Robinson is a sneaky start.

Stats you need to make tough lineup decisions in 2-minutes.

This is uncomfortable to think about, but it’s true.

Injury Report

Sun God, Not Today

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risk for Week 5.

Last week, Edwin highlighted why you should be cautious with Deebo Samuel. This week:

Tee Higgins: OUT (ribs).
Amon-Ra St Brown: OUT (abs).
Pat Freiermuth: OUT
Treylon Burks: OUT

Derek Carr: Carr is likely feeling better, but he’s also not close to 100%. He should still be fine, and similar to the other quarterbacks on the injury report this week, he comes with moderate volatility due to re-injury risk and accuracy/deep ball concerns.

Saquon Barkley: Barkley is not expected to play. If you created a nightmare scenario for the Giants before the season, this is pretty much it. The Giants don’t have ways to overcome the loss of Barkley and LT Andrew Thomas at this point.

Aaron Jones: Jones was on a snap count, but 11 days later should be even closer to 100% as the Packers do a great job of treating soft tissue injuries. The Raiders are a bottom 5 passing defense and middle-of-the-road running defense. But with the Packers as a 2.5-point favorite and AJ Dillon providing nothing on his touches, Jones should have plenty of opportunities to bounce back in a big way.

Read Dr. Edwin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30 am inactives here: Week 5 Injury Report.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our Week 5 projections and rankings are accessible to FantasyPoints subscribers:

• 2023 Week 5 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup. If you never want to miss a Fantasy Points article again, hit subscribe below.

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