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Welcome to Week 4. We sent this earlier than usual due to the 9:30 AM ET start for the Jags/Falcons in London. Don’t forget to make that start/sit decision on Falcons pass catchers…

If it helps, the last time Kyle Pitts played in London, he had 9 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown. And he already has another TD celebration prepared.

But wait a second, Kyle Pitts and Drake London have each seen just 9 catchable targets through three games. Nine!!! A total of 67 WRs and 23 TEs have seen 10 or more catchable targets.

• Just 60% of London’s targets have been catchable. This ranks 102nd out of 109 qualifying WRs, per Graham Barfield’s Week 4 Stat Pack.

• Pitts’ catchable target rate (52.9%) ranks dead last among tight ends. Last year, just 63% of Pitts’ targets were catchable. That also ranked last.

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The Fantasy Points Data Suite ($200 value) is FREE for this week only (Monday until next Sunday)👇️ 

A few questions the Data Suite helps you answer:

1. How does Amon-Ra St. Brown perform on different routes run - based on alignment out wide, in the slot, inline, and from the backfield?

2. How many routes did Jahmyr Gibbs run per QB dropback? How does Gibbs compare to David Montgomery in this category?

3. Are Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins in the top-10 players in total red zone targets? And what percentage of their red zone targets were in the end zone?

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

Everything Report

Buy the Jags Offense

Quentin Johnston has league-winning potential. Josh Palmer is definitely the short-term play, but that is never as valuable in fantasy as the long-term play or the playoff play. Palmer can be a valuable fantasy asset for several weeks, but we know who he is at this point – which is to say, a player who ranks 35th-worst of 102-qualifying WRs in YPRR since the start of last season.

But it’s only a matter of time – probably sometime in the second-half of the season when rookie WRs tend to break out – until Johnston supplants him as the clear WR2.

And given how high Scott was on Johnston as a prospect, he wouldn’t be surprised if Johnston eventually comes close to matching what you would have gotten from a healthy Mike Williams.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville passing game is due for a massive positive regression. When targeting an open receiver 10 or more yards down the field, Lawrence somehow ranks best in accurate throw rate but worst in completion percentage. This helps explain why Lawrence currently ranks 3rd in PFF Grade, but just 30th in EPA per play. Eventually, more of these accurately thrown balls will result in completions instead of drops, forced outs, or pass breakups by a defender.

So, yeah, now would be a good time to buy Calvin Ridley – he currently ranks 10th in XFP (53.4), 11th in air yards (290), 13th in targets (25), and 13th in first-read targets (22), but just 35th in fantasy points scored. And he’s also been brutally unlucky in another area. He’s had a minimum of 5.6 fantasy points negated due to penalty, and then another minimum of 13.6 fantasy points lost due to DPIs (most). If we add those numbers back to his totals, he jumps from WR35 to WR9.

The one glimmer of hope with Justin Fields: he had 7 designed rushing attempts last week, up from 2.5 per game over the first two weeks of the season. Over his final 10 games last season, Fields averaged 24.9 FPG and 7.4 designed rushing attempts per game.

Marquise Brown ranks 5th in target share (32.7%) over the last two weeks, while averaging exactly 17.3 FPG and 17.3 XFP/G. It seems the Zach Ertz experiment is finally over, and Brown is back to being the clear WR1 of this team.

Scott shares his concerns on Mark Andrews, Elijah Moore and Kenneth Walker in the FULL Week 4 Everything Report.

Week 4 Start/Sits

Stairway to Evans

Graham Barfield helps with lineup decisions in Week 4.

Mike Evans is a boom/bust option. Evans has been white hot to start the season and is Baker Mayfield’s clear top target. Through three games, Mike Evans has out-targeted Chris Godwin by a 27 to 18 margin. Evans has seen 51.4% of the team’s air yards, which is the highest share among all wide receivers. Tyreek Hill (50.3%) is #2 while Davante Adams (49.5%) is third. Evans’ 37.3% first read target share ranks 8th-highest among wide receivers. Comparatively, Godwin ranks 31st (25.4% FR TS).

That said, Evans has struggled in matchups vs. the Saints in his career and their secondary is off to a great start. New Orleans is allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points per route run to outside wide receivers (0.20). Evans is a boom-or-bust WR2/3.

Start Christian Kirk. Kirk has the better matchup of the two Jags WRs with Atlanta allowing 0.40 fantasy points per route run to slot receivers, tied with the L.A. Chargers for the league-high. Zay Jones (knee) is a longshot to play.

Flex Play: Gabe Davis. Davis has a 13.6% target share through three games (Diggs: 28.2%). He’s a WR3 with a slight bump given the expected scoring environment (54.5 over/under).

Flex Play: De’Von Achane. Achane had 10 carries to Mostert’s 7 in the first half, giving us plenty of runway for both of these backs to produce. Achane has the most upside over the season, of course. The Bills have not faced many rush attempts (53 | third-fewest), but have played awful run defense to start the season allowing 5.79 YPC (most). 10-12 touches might be all Achane needs to deliver here.

Sit Ravens RBs. I really hope that you don’t have to rely on a Ravens RB here. The Browns front-seven is stifling opposing RBs to just 2.79 YPC (4th-fewest). Justice Hill (foot) is questionable, and if he misses the game, it will make Edwards a passable FLEX in Half-PPR formats.

Flex Play: Josh Palmer. Expected to be the immediate replacement for Mike Williams (knee). Rookie Quinten Johnston should take over as the season goes on, but for now, Palmer enters the back-end WR3/FLEX conversation. Palmer averaged 5.5 receptions and 59.5 yards per game (on 8.3 targets per game) in the 11 contests where he played more than 75% of the snaps last season.

Read the full article to see where Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Brandon Aiyuk and Breece Hall land. 

D/ST Starts

Attack the Titans

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️

Cincinnati Bengals (CIN, 38%) @ TEN: Everything about the Titans' offense looks broken. When Derrick Henry can only rush for 20 yards, you’ve got problems. The offensive line is in shambles. They allowed Cleveland to sack Ryan Tannehill five times. Tennessee can’t keep drives going, as evident from their 2-12 third down conversion ratio in Week 3. Cincy pass rushers should have a field day playing in the Titans backfield.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB, 35%) @ NO: Two words: Jameis Winston. With Saints starter Derek Carr looking unlikely to play, the ball will be in the hands of Winston, who famously threw 30 interceptions in 2019 as the Bucs quarterback. In limited action last year, he reverted back to his old ways. In three starts, he tossed five balls to the other team. I fully expect the Bucs to pressure Winston into several miscues on Sunday afternoon. Per Fantasy Points Data, the Bucs defense ranks 12th in the league in percentage of dropbacks under pressure at 36.6%.

Extra Points

Chasing Greatness

Ja’Marr Chase should have a day. Chase faces Titans CB Kristian Fulton, who is fresh off of getting torched for 95 yards and a touchdown by Amari Cooper last week.

Among corners with 30 or more coverage snaps played this year, no player has allowed more yards per route run than Fulton (3.51), and he’s also surrendered a perfect passer rating. Chase lines up at LWR slightly more often than he does at RWR, and so far this season, Fulton has played exclusively RCB. It’s a brutal matchup for Fulton, who will also see plenty of Tee Higgins, per Joe Dolan’s Mismatch Report.

Sell DK Metcalf, because Metcalf seems to hold value regardless of his mediocre fantasy output. In 2022 he was at least seeing a bigger red zone role despite failing to separate from Tyler Lockett in actual FPG, but the reverse has been true this season, via Ryan Heath’s Week 4 Rest of Season Trade Value.

Mark Andrews has just a 20.8% first-read target share (per game), compared to Zay Flowers' 36.5%. Both are largely seeing short targets (5.8 and 5.1 aDOTs), but Flowers is averaging over a yard more after the catch. I'd call this somewhat worrisome, especially within the context of an entirely new offense, via Ryan Heath’s Week 4 Rest of Season Trade Value.

As for your DFS Lineups: The fantasy industry's most comprehensive dive into the 2023 NFL Week 4 daily fantasy football main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel - Tribbey’s Week 4 DFS Breakdown.

Read Nick Spanola’s Week 4 DFS Coverage Shells.

Derrick Henry has played on only 54.5% of the Titans' snaps this season (RB22). He has averaged just 3.20 YPC (RB30 among qualified players), 0.22 MTF/attempt (RB24), and 2.59 yards after contact per attempt (RB20). In other words, Henry has been a mostly-average runner in a timeshare on a bad team. He could certainly make me look foolish, but I remain very worried, via Ryan Heath’s Week 4 Rest of Season Trade Value.

Anthony Richardson is averaging 31.8 fantasy points per 4 quarters. That’s 7.7 FPG better than Justin Herbert (the current QB1), and 4.1 FPG better than the greatest QB fantasy season of all-time (2019 Lamar Jackson). His 6.4 designed rushes per 4 quarters sans kneels and sneaks is better than QBs like 2022 Justin Fields (5.3 designed rushes per 4 quarters) or 2022 Jalen Hurts (4.7), per Tribbey’s DFS Values.

Tank Dell is the best bet. Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365). Dell led the team in targets (10 > 7) in back-to-back games and has shown the ability to threaten the defense vertically and separate over the middle. We were all over Dell’s breakout last week and this number is still too low (median projection: 60.5 yards). Read Barfield’s full list of Best Bets for Week 4 (he’s 15-4 this season).

Acquire Jerry Jeudy. While Marvin Mims continues to draw all the headlines, Jeudy’s back on the rise after a solid 5/81 on 7 targets, including a gain of 46 in Week 3. Mims is a great pickup, but Jeudy is the more established player, and he’s more than capable of going on a heater and carrying some fantasy teams in spots, per John Hansen’s Players to Trade For.

More Tank Dell in DFS. Dell became a full-time player in Week 2. And since Week 2, he ranks 6th in receiving yards (217), 6th in fantasy points per route (0.70), and 9th in YPRR (3.34). His usage over that stretch (14.9 XFP/G) has been solid (WR29), and his production (18.4 DK FPG) has been even better (WR14 on the slate). His WR39 DraftKings salary is laughable, and his WR32 FanDuel salary isn’t any less humorous. He’s the priority cash game play this week, especially with his schemed usage getting better and better… per Tribbey’s DFS Values.

Three Tweets

How is this still a thing? Thankfully, this could be the week it changes…

Tony Pollard could easily finish RB1 overall with this volume. Expecting positive regression 👇️ 

Check in on the Jahmyr Gibbs owner in your league.

Injury Report

Down on Austin, Again

Dr. Edwin Porras breaks down relevant injuries and risks for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.

Last week, Edwin highlighted why you should have tempered expectations with Joe Burrow and Kendre Miller. This week:

Austin Ekeler: Missing Week 4. Ekeler is expected to return post-Week 5 bye.

Jimmy Garoppolo: In the concussion protocol for the first time in his career and will miss Week 4. You may want to downgrade Raiders skill players.

Deebo Samuel: “Avoided fractured ribs” and is just sore. Make plans to be without Deebo but stay locked in for updates. Only 33% of players go on to miss time with this injury, but Samuel is not trending in the right direction.

Read Dr. Edin Porras’ article (thoughts on Saquon Barkley) - updated through the 11:30 am inactives here: Week 4 Injury Report. 

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our Week 4 projections and rankings are accessible to FantasyPoints subscribers:

• 2023 Week 4 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

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