Welcome to Week 14. The playoffs are one week away, which means you are one week closer to the title you deserve. Go win this last one, secure a higher seed and get the momentum rolling.

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MARKET CHECK

EVERYTHING REPORT

Put Respect On Kyren

Kyren Williams is the 2nd-most valuable RB in fantasy after CMC, comparable to prime Todd Gurley, per Scott. He’s a highest-end bell cow – Kyren handled 98% of the team’s backfield XFP last week on 95% of the team’s snaps – and an easy top-3 fantasy RB moving forward. In 8 games, Williams ranks 1st in snap share (82.1%), 3rd in XFP/G (20.1), 1st in red zone XFP/G (7.9), and 3rd in FPG (21.2). Stud.

Across Chris Olave’s last eight full quarters of work, he totals 25 targets, 18 catches, 327 yards, and a touchdown - averaging 12.5 targets, 9.0 catches, 163.5 yards, and 28.4 fantasy points.

With Winston, Olave has a 36% target share, and is averaging 23.9 fantasy points per 36.8 pass attempts. With Carr, those numbers drop to just 24% and then 13.5 fantasy points. He’s a league winner of Winston gets some starts.

Trey McBride is a DFS cheat code. Last week, McBride accounted for 39% of Kyler’s passes (he had 6 more targets than any other Cardinals receiver) and an astounding 61% of Murray’s yards. Since Zach Ertz first went down, McBride has been putting up fringe-WR1 numbers - and until DraftKings stops pricing him as just a high-end WR3, Scott is going to keep him in his DFS lineups.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 14 Everything Report.

START/SITS

Courtland’s Kingdom

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 14.

Start Courtland Sutton. He’s scored a TD or gone over 60 yards in 11-of-12 games this season - Sutton is a strong WR2 against a Chargers secondary that is allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+6.5) to opposing outside receivers.

Start Evan Engram. Engram was targeted six times (5/36 receiving) by CJ Beathard (14 passes) after he entered the game last week. We’ve been fading tight ends against the Browns all season, but this is one of the rare cases where starting Engram makes sense.

Start Nico Collins. The Jets are the toughest secondary in the league against perimeter receivers, but Stroud will now have to lean heavily on Nico Collins for the rest of the way after losing Tank Dell. In two games without Dell, Collins has posted 4/80 receiving and 9/191/1. Collins projects as a WR2 this week.

Sit Jordan Addison. He’s turned his 30 targets into 18/204/0 receiving with Dobbs. Addison has registered scoring weeks of WR35, WR33, WR47, and WR48 as a result. He’s now the clear #3 behind Jefferson and Hockenson.

Sit Adam Thielen. In a perfect matchup last week, Thielen ended with 3/25 receiving on 6 targets against the Buccaneers. This is after a 1-catch, 2-yard game against the Titans. After air-balling against two defenses we target for receivers every week, Thielen is a low-floor FLEX at best now.

Sit Jared Goff. Goff has not finished higher than QB8 in weekly scoring since Week 6. Over the last seven games (since stud CB Jaylon Johnson returned), Chicago is allowing just 214.2 passing yards per game (7th-fewest) and a stifling 5.9 YPA (2nd-fewest). It’s just enough to pull Goff off the board in 1-QB leagues.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (and see why he’s flexing Jerome Ford and Josh Downs).

Sam LaPorta is coming off his first career 100-yard performance, posting a season-high 9/140/1 receiving for 29.0 FP against the Saints. He ranks third in FPG (14.3), fourth in targets (86), and sixth in air yards share (22.4%) among TEs. LaPorta recorded a season-worst 3/18 receiving on 5 targets against Chicago three weeks ago, but the Bears are giving up the sixth-most receptions per game (5.7) to TEs, per Brolley’s Week 14 Game Hub.

Watch CeeDee Lamb vs Eagles CB Bradley Roby. Of the 11 receptions CeeDee had against Philadelphia in Week 8, 7 came on either a safety or a linebacker — where they used rookie S Sydney Brown, rookie UDFA Eli Ricks, and veteran Kevin Byard. In five games this year, we have Roby as having surrendered just 9 catches for 80 yards and a TD, total… but expect the Cowboys to use the Deebo Samuel blueprint to abuse the Eagles linebackers, per Dolan’s Week 14 Mismatch Report.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️ 

Green Bay Packers (18%) - The Packers DST looked up to the challenge against the Chiefs on SNF and the Pack might have the best schedule of any team in the league starting with Week 14 at the Giants, who are the best possible matchup for any opposing defense.

Houston Texans (LV, 13%) – Drake has zero faith that the Jets will find any way to move the football, so Houston should be good for a handful of sacks and a pick or two. Houston’s next four games are incredible: @NYJ, @TEN, vs CLE, vs TEN. Target.

DFS

Find The Value

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown, Jake Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall and DFS Values and Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells are must-reads:

Davante Adams ($7,500) is the cheapest he’s been all season on DraftKings. He averages 11.0 targets per game with Aidan O’Connell under center, but just 8.8 targets per game in all other contests. He’s a viable tournament play if he projects for sub-8%ish ownership, per Tribbey’s Week 14 DFS Study Hall.

Garrett Wilson (DK $5,500 | FD $6,700). The Jets have been pass-happy, which has led to Garrett Wilson seeing at least 12 targets and gaining at least 80 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games with Zach Wilson. He’s fallen way under expectation (21.1 XFP/G) – but high-end WR1 volume at a ~WR3 DraftKings price tag can’t be ignored. He’s a top-6 value on both sites, per Tribbey’s Week 14 DFS Values.

TJ Hockenson ($6,000) has been Minnesota’s opportunity-hog against zone coverage since Jefferson’s early season injury, and I still think he’s a decent play this week, even with Jefferson’s return. Hockenson’s 0.30 TPRR is tied for the 4th-highest among 120 qualifiers:

Over the last month, the Raiders have given up 2.45 YPRR to opposing inline pass catchers and 2.35 YPRR to opposing slot pass catchers, both of which are the 5th-most among all defenses. Hockenson runs >50% of his routes from inline and >30% through the slot. He’s an efficient weapon from each alignment, per Spanola’s Week 14 Coverage Shells.

Justin Fields ($6,800). Fields has played in five games since Week 4 – two of those contests were against Minnesota (9.3 DraftKings FPG), but Fields managed 30.0 DraftKings FPG over his last three games against non-Minnesota teams. That included a 24.2-point performance against Detroit, who has struggled massively against hyper-mobile QBs over the last two seasons, per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

TRADES & BETS

Love is Ascending

Over the last five weeks, Jordan Love ranks 4th in passer rating, 3rd in CPOE and 8th in average depth of target - leading to big wins. Before this stretch, he ranked 29th in passer rating, and 32nd in completion percentage over expectation.

A big reason for the change has been Love’s effectiveness versus pressure. He has a 113.8 passer rating vs. pressure over the past five weeks compared to a passer rating of 54 earlier this season, despite being under pressure 14% more over the back half of the season, per Wecht’s Five Stats To Know From Week 13.

Dallas Goedert is back. We’ve all seen the splits of the Eagles’ success with/without Goedert, so they’ll likely heavily feature him in his expected return this week. If he’s on waivers or if you have a late trade deadline, this is the last chance to get a high-impact guy at a steep discount, per Hansen’s Week 14 Players to Trade/Trade For.

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes IDP Prob bets for Week 14.

Props & Odds

Jayden Reed over 38.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings). The NYG are giving up the 8th most receptions (91) and the 8th most YPRR (1.94) to slot receivers. They’ve also allowed slot WRs to hit 45+ yards in 7 straight games and Christian Watson is likely to miss, per Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 14.

Roschon Johnson over 14.5 rushing yards (-115, DK). Johnson has 18+ yards in 8/10 games and went 6/30 against DET in Week 11, which jumped him ahead of Herbert in Week 12 per Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 14.

Drake London over 45.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel). TB is giving up the 6th most receiving YPG to receivers out wide and London went 6/54 against TB in Week 7. London has also hit 54+ yards in 5 of his last 7 games, per Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 14.

📱 Tweets

DJ Moore is having a great year.

These studs are all (mostly) playing at home this week.

The MVP discussion around Brock Purdy is hilarious.

INJURY REPORT

War of Attrition

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risks for Week 14.

Last week, Edwin highlighted Aaron Rodgers and Jonathan Taylor. This week:

Trevor Lawrence (High Ankle). Lawrence is gonna give it a go… this tracks, as he’s played through some gnarly injuries this season. Still, gamers should consider looking in another direction, as there’s an 18% reinjury risk, and his rushing will be limited. For context, ribs/shoulder reinjury rates for QBs are 13%, while hamstring/knee reinjury rates are 14%.

Zach Charbonnet (Knee) & Kenneth Walker III (Oblique). Edwin has much more confidence in Charbs this week compared to Walker - the reinjury rate for knee injuries is low, and the impact on performance is minimal. Conversely, Walker has struggled with abdomen injuries since the preseason, and the worst-case scenario of reinjury and needing a longer layoff is in the cards.

Chris Olave (Illness). Olave has the flu and is going to attempt to play. Depending on how hydrated and symptomatic he still is, Olave’s ceiling is in question. In addition to Derek Carr’s status being up in the air, Olave has the largest range of outcomes amongst top WRs on this slate. Cash game players, be aware.

Read Dr. Edin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30 am inactives here: Week 14 Injury Report.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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• 2023 Week 14 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

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