Welcome to Week 3, where everyone’s question is: Will Puka Nacua continue to dominate the NFL? Six reasons why the answer may be yes:

1. Nacua has lined up out wide on 70.6% of his snaps (compared to Kupp's 43.8% in 2022).

2. Nacua is averaging 3.13 YPRR (WR7, min. 20 routes) and has commanded a 44.8% first read target share (WR3).

3. He's done all this with only one designed target.

4. The Rams are leading the NFL in total snaps and rank 3rd in total dropbacks.

5. HC Sean McVay told Mike Garofolo "Even when Kupp comes back there will still be a big role for Nacua."

6. Nacua joined Stafford and Kupp’s breakfast club

Back in February, our Brett Whitefield was singing Puka’s praises:

Last week’s edition of The Roundup highlighted Zach Moss, Nico Collins and Daniel Jones - all who produced matchup-winning weeks in Week 2.

Subscribers, join our Discord — if you’re not in there already - for personal start/sit questions & much more.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

Game Ball

Nico Collins Dominates

Brett Whitefield breaks down last week’s most outstanding player.

On Nico Collins: “I firmly believe that targets and snaps are earned in the NFL, and through two weeks, there might not be a better candidate for increased usage in the entire league than Nico Collins. His production so far this season on less than 70% route participation is incredible.

• Ranks 6th in YPRR (3.10) through 2 weeks (min 30 routes run)

• Charted with at least a step of separation on 17 of 20 targets.

• CJ Stroud had a passer rating of 155.8 when targeting Collins

His three-level connection with Stroud bodes very well for Collins’ future.” Read the full article.

Everything Report

A-Rich & League Winners

Kyren Williams saw legitimately insane usage in Week 2. I’m now very open to the possibility that he will be a 2023 league-winner. Williams’ Week 2 usage was much closer to peak Todd Gurley than to anything else.

Williams – only 194 pounds and laughably unathletic (3.7-percentile SPORQ Score) – may not be peak Gurley levels of good. But he doesn’t need to be with this sort of volume — this sort of volume, which crucially, features him more as a pass-catcher than as a runner. (For RBs, targets are worth 2.5X as much as a carry in PPR leagues. This means Williams’ 10 targets last week were roughly equivalent to an extra 25 carries.)

And best of all, this Rams offense looks about as good as it did two seasons ago when they won the Super Bowl. The Rams rank tied for 1st in plays per game (80.5) and 2nd in points per drive (2.79). They’ve accomplished this all without their best offensive player (Cooper Kupp), and in back-to-back tough matchups.

Michael Pittman currently ranks 5th among all WRs in target share (30.6%), 5th in first-read target share (39.6%), and 8th in XFP/G (18.6). With Gardner Minshew under center his target share balloons to 40.0%. He’s a strong DFS value this week, especially if Minshew starts, priced at only $6,200 up against a Marlon Humphrey-less Ravens defense.

Anthony Richardson is a superstar and a league-winner. He’s this year’s Justin Fields, only better. Shane Steichen is a GOAT, the Colts rank 4th in pass rate over expectation, the Colts rank 2nd in situation-neutral pace of play (24.5 seconds per snap), Richardson is the most athletic QB in NFL history, etc. I’d be trying to acquire him wherever I can.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Everything Report.

Week 3 Start/Sits

Mattison’s Last Chance

Graham Barfield helps with lineup decisions in Week 3.

Start Alexander Mattison. Mattison is getting the highest-end workload possible. This will likely be his last chance to show out with Cam Akers looming.

Despite handling 73% of the carries (3rd-highest share), running a route on 50% of the dropbacks (11th-highest share), getting 81% of the red-zone snaps (9th-highest), and ranking 9th-highest by XFP per game (16.2)…

Mattison has finished as the RB18 and RB51 in Week 1-2.

Mattison should have plenty of scoring chances in a potential shootout against the Chargers game. The Vikings are tied with the Dolphins for the third-highest implied total (27.5) on the Week 3 slate. If he can’t bounce back as a strong RB2, Akers or Ty Chandler could get a shot at the starting job. After a rough week of injuries at the position, hold your nose and put Mattison back into lineups.

Start Mike Williams, who has run 35% of his routes from the slot – which is up from 15.5% last season – and he has the same exact first-read target share (29.4%) as Keenan Allen. The spike weeks are coming, and this spot looks incredible. The Vikings are struggling badly vs. outside WRs, which is where Williams runs the majority of his routes. Minnesota is allowing the 4th-most yards (2.55) and 6th-most fantasy points (0.46) on a per route basis to outside wide receivers. Go right back to Williams as a strong WR2/FLEX play.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (and see why he’s sitting Garrett Wilson and James Conner)

Is this the Kyle Pitts week? Pitts has just 2 catches in each of his first two games despite a healthy 81.7% route share. He’s turned his 4 catches into 59 yards on just 8 targets (16%), but at least he’s seen a promising 34.1% air yards share. He’s seen just 4 catchable passes on his 8 targets. The Lions are allowing a league-high 87.5 receiving YPG and the third-most FPG (18.8) to TEs despite Travis Kelce missing the opener against them, per Tom Brolley’s Week 3 Game Hub.

Breece Hall should have a week. The Jets have to take the training wheels off Hall soon and the numbers suggest this is a good matchup to do it. The Patriots have allowed a league-high 2.73 aYBC/A on the ground this year, largely because Raheem Mostert crushed them for 18/121/2 last week (the Eagles might have had more success in Week 1 if they gave the ball to D’Andre Swift…). The Jets have our third-highest Rush Grade of the week, and they’d be wise to use it because the Patriots pash rush is a major advantage over the Jets, per Joe Dolan’s Week 3 Mismatch Report.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️ 

Commanders — Anytime a D/ST records seven sacks, we take notice. The Commanders welcomed back Chase Young, who helped wreak havoc on the Broncos. Facing Buffalo is challenging, but Josh Allen can get loose with football (four turnovers through two games). According to Fantasy Points Data, Washington ranks 9th in the fewest fantasy points allowed per game.

Jaguars — The Jags head home to battle C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Expect the Jacksonville front to terrorize a banged-up Texans offensive line with several back-ups. Houston allowed six sacks last week vs. the Colts and has given up the most (11) on the season. Jags defenders have forced six turnovers through two weeks, second most in the league.

Week 3 Coverage

Breakout Games Ahead

Nick Spanola shares his research on coverage matchups for defensive schemes.

Josh Jacobs breakout incoming? Steelers allowing most PPG to RBs (34.8), are allowing 6.1 YPC (highest in NFL) and 166 rush YPG (highest in NFL). Jacobs is due for positive regression, averaging 5.9 fantasy points under his expected output per game. That ranks bottom-three among all RBs appearing in two games.

Rashid Shaheed is a strong play against Green Bay ($4,200 on DK). The Packers have played in zone coverage on 91% of their pass play snaps this season, most in the NFL. Among skill players with 100+ zone routes last season, Shaheed finished with the highest YPT (15.9) and second-highest YPRR at 3.24.

Read the full article which covers why Mike Williams > Keenan Allen in Week 3, and AJ Brown + DeVonta Smith are both regression candidates.

Week 3 DFS

Etienne’s Big Week

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown and Jake Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall and DFS Values are must-reads:

Tank Dell ($3600) was a part-time player in Week 1, but Noah Brown was placed on IR ahead of Week 2. Dell finished Week 2 with a 76% route share and 21% target share, converting that into 20.2 fantasy points and 17.8 XFP. He finished with the 2nd-most first-read targets (7) on the team. It’s absurd he’s priced as the WR58 ($3,600) on DraftKings this week, per Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall.

Joshua Kelley unsurprisingly flopped last week against the league’s best run defense, but his usage was strong, and his volume was decent – 79% of the team’s snaps, 13 of 18 carries, 1 of 3 targets out of the backfield. He gets a much more favorable matchup this week, against a Vikings defense that has given up the 2nd-most rushing YPG to opposing RBs this season (143.0), per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

Tyler Lockett has 14 targets on the season, and 35% of those (5 total) have come in the end zone. That’s tied for the league lead, per Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall.

Justin Jefferson leads the league in receiving yards (309) but still remains a little unlucky in the touchdown department. That’s something that’s going to regress to the mean. Perhaps as soon as this week, up against a Chargers defense that’s given up a league-high 57.1 FPG to opposing WRs, per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

Travis Etienne’s time has come. Last season, the Texans were the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground last year (+5.1 rushing FPG). This year, they’ve given up the most rushing TDs (4) and the 9th-most FPG (24.3) to opposing RBs. We almost always want to play opposing RBs against Houston.

And Etienne seems to have Houston’s number. He averaged 18.7 FPG against the Texans last season, and I wouldn’t expect much different this week in one of the best-projected gamescripts of the slate, with Jacksonville as a 9.5-point favorite (Etienne also averages 15.3 FPG in wins of 7 points or more), per Tribbey’s DFS Values.

Trades and Targets

Two Must-Have RBs

Acquire Kenneth Walker. Walker's 15.2 XFP/G (RB13) places him in borderline RB1 territory, a particularly valuable place to be with so many injuries at the position. His route share fell from 51.7% to 28.9% in Week 2, but that was mostly due to all Seahawks RBs running fewer routes, as he still ran more than Zach Charbonnet and Deejay Dallas did combined. Walker also ranks 3rd in total missed tackles forced behind only Bijan Robinson and Nick Chubb (RIP), from Ryan Heath’s Week 3 Big Board.

Target a discounted Trevor Lawrence. He’s off to a slow start, but we could be only a few weeks away from Trevor standing out as one of the 4-5 most reliable QBs in fantasy. Right now, he’s only 28th in FP/DB, and that number is going way up, so he can probably be had a slight discount right now, per Scott Hansen’s Week 3 Players to Trade/Trade For.

Acquire Tony Pollard everywhere. Pollard’s role is even better than expected. Through two games, he leads all RBs in expected fantasy points per game (25.5 XFP Half-PPR). The next closest RB to Pollard in XFP is Austin Ekeler (23.7 XFP Week 1), followed by Kyren Williams with 19.8 XFP per game. Pollard already has 12 carries inside-the-10 (red-zone) through two games after he had just 12 inside-10 carries in the entire 2022 season, per Graham Barfield’s Week 3 Stat Pack.

Stash Darius Slayton. Slayton leads Giants WRs in snap rate from 12 personnel at 73.8%. Why does this stat matter? Last season Slayton led the Giants in overall snap rate at 65%, but when they went to 12 personnel, his snap rate fell to 42.5% (6th among Giants WRs). The addition of Darren Waller foreshadowed a jump in 12 personnel - which we have seen thus far. Among Giants WRs, Slayton ranks 1st in Air Yard Share at 34% and is tied with Parris Campbell in Target Share and 1st Read Share at 15% and 20%. Slayton is clearly the WR1 and likely has some spike weeks coming with the Giants often trailing. More insights in Chris Wecht’s Five Stats to Know.

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes IDP Prop bets for Week 3. 

Tweets

Does this mean Kadarius Toney will finally avoid the blue medical tent?

Why Tua Tagovailoa could be in for a massive Week 3.

Congratulations to everyone who added Hunter Henry.

Injury Report

Dear Injury Gods, Spare Us

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risk for Week 3.

Last week, Edwin highlighted why you should sit Jerry Jeudy in his season debut. This week:

Joe Burrow: In reality, whether Burrow plays or not is simply the first layer. The second layer is how effective he’ll be. The third layer is can he stay on the field? I don’t give hard recommendations often, but I’m personally looking another direction this week at QB even in superflex leagues and just live with the result. Burrow is still a high risk to sit.

Austin Ekeler: Don’t expect Ekeler back if the Chargers win in Week 3. A less than 100% Ekeler in Week 4 if LAC loses again is in the cards.

Saquon Barkley: Saquon admitted he has a high ankle sprain. Week 5 is the soonest possible return for him.

Aaron Jones: Jones returned to practice this week and is trending in the right direction. NFL RBs see a recurrence rate around 24%, which is high. There is a reality in which you don’t need to start Jones this week to avoid the risk. For example, it’s more than possible gamers have some combination of Rachaad White, Jerome Ford, and Kyren Williams.

Kendre Miller: With a hamstring recurrence rate of 24% and a meniscus repair already this year, he’s highly volatile in Week 3 but could see a massive opportunity. He’s a viable flex play in Week 3 and a GPP play only understanding the risks.

Jaylen Waddle: Out with a concussion.

Christian Watson: Watson returned to practice on Friday and it feels like he’s gonna give it a go on Sunday. Be sure and check back on Sunday morning, though. There’s a 30% hamstring recurrence rate Watson has already succumbed to this calendar year. Fantasy gamers who need a big week or don’t mind the risk can start him if he’s active. But he should absolutely be faded in cash games.

DK Metcalf: Metcalf hasn’t practiced this week, but “is on track to play” according to Gregg Bell of the Tacoma News Tribune. This matches data that shows 71% of WRs play one week after a ribs injury. Just be sure to check in on this before Sunday. Start Metcalf as performance is not generally impacted.

Read Dr. Edin Porras’ updated (through the 11:30 am inactives) Week 3 Injury Report here.

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