Welcome to Week 12 & Happy (belated) Thanksgiving, Fantasy Points family. Hope you avoided the political conversations and enjoyed the Thursday games.

This week offers a slate with the closest projected matchups in recent memory. Only one team (Chiefs -8.5) is favored to win by more than four points. And with playoffs and bye weeks on the line, this is must-win territory.

Can’t wait.

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MARKET CHECK

EVERYTHING REPORT

The Jaguars Secret Weapon

Devin Singletary leads the league in rushing yards over the last two weeks. Without Dameon Pierce, Singletary has played on a league-high 164 snaps (81%), averaging 21.7 carries, 2.0 targets, 96.0 rushing yards, and 17.8 DK FPG…

Scott has a hard time imagining Singletary doesn’t continue to dominate this backfield, even with Pierce. Pierce is the single least-efficient RB in fantasy, and he’s greatly struggled in zone rushing concepts (Texans OC Bobby Slowik’s or Kyle Shanahan’s bread-and-butter). Slowik has basically conceded that Pierce probably just isn’t a great fit for this scheme.

Let’s try to figure out the Buffalo receiving options.

Scott believes that Gabe Davis' apparent demotion is real to a degree, even though he’s not running fewer routes, he just got leapfrogged by Dalton Kincaid on the target totem pole.

Khalil Shakir’s surging usage and full-season efficiency also look real enough to get excited about his $3,600 salary on DraftKings this week.

Shakir has seen a substantial uptick in usage and volume over the last four weeks; he’s run a route on 68% of the team’s dropbacks (up from 17.2%), averaging 4.0 targets and 72.0 YPG (18th-most). Across the full season, Shakir ranks 3rd in YPRR from the slot (min. 100 routes), behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill.

We’re not worried about Stefon Diggs (averaging 6.6 FPG over his last two games), who had a brutal matchup last week against the Jets, and then ran 58% of his routes against Patrick Surtain the week before. He’s in a good spot vs the porous Eagles this week. 

Is Zay Jones the secret to unlocking Calvin Ridley & Trevor Lawrence? It looks like it. Ridley is averaging 15.0 more DK FPG in games with Jones (22.5 DK FPG) than without (7.5). For perspective, that’s the difference between ranking as the WR7 by FPG, or the WR68. Lawrence also averages 6.1 more DK FPG with Jones (20.5) rather than without (14.4).

Shoutout to Rich Hribar for being on this first. And although Scott is having trouble finding data to support it fully, the assumption is that: “Jones typically plays the ‘clear out’ role on the team. When Jones was out, the Jaguars stupidly forced Ridley into that role. So, therefore, it made sense Christian Kirk and Evan Engram were consistently out-scoring him in games Jones missed.”

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 12 Everything Report.

START/SITS

The Saquon Renaissance

Start Saquon Barkley. Since returning from an ankle injury, Barkley is averaging 109.7 scrimmage yards per game – which is a triumph given the QB and offensive line situation. Since Week 6, Barkley is the RB4 by expected fantasy points per game (18.4) and his 80% snap rate trails only CMC (82%). Can DeVito help him keep this going?

Start Rachaad White. He’s finished as a top-20 scorer among RBs in six of his last 7 games. Over their last four games, Indianapolis has allowed 4.32 YPC (7th-most) and 134 rushing yards per game (2nd-most) compared to 3.34 YPC and 96.2 YPG with Stewart in Weeks 1-6.

Start Kyren Williams. In Weeks 1-6, Williams had one of the most valuable roles in fantasy football. In this span, he led all RBs in snap rate (83.1%) and he was the RB9 by expected fantasy points (17.1 Half-PPR). Williams’ 92% snap rate in the red-zone ranked 3rd-highest among RBs. The Cardinals are allowing 117.6 rushing yards per game (5th-most) and they’ve faced 20 carries at the goal-line (3rd-most). Smash spot in his return.

Sit Rashee Rice. Rice did not receive a bump in his role out of the Chiefs bye. In his last six games, Rice’s route shares show a part time role: 19% > 39% > 56% > 59% > 47% > 52%. Justin Watson’s 11 targets last week came legitimately out of nowhere – he had previously seen more than 4 targets in just 3-of-8 games.

Sit Marquise Brown. His connection with Kyler has been off and this duo has linked up for just 3/46 receiving (on 9 targets). This passing offense is designed around Trey McBride as he’s seen 32% of the first reads compared to just 17% for Brown over the last two weeks. By schedule-adjusted FP allowed, the Rams are tougher against outside receivers (-5.1 points below average | 8th-fewest).

Sit Diontae Johnson. After looking strong coming back from a hamstring injury with 20/254/1 receiving (on 29 targets) in Weeks 7-9, Johnson has 3 receptions for 33 yards over the last two weeks. According to our data collection team, just six of Johnson’s 13 targets (46.2%) against the Browns and Packers were catchable. This is a QB problem.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (see why he’s flexing Drake London and Javonte Williams).

Jaylen Warren is the captain now. Last week he exploded for a 74-yard touchdown early in the third quarter to help him total 9/129/1 rushing and 3/16 receiving on a 45% snap share. Meanwhile, Najee Harris was stuffed on 58.3% of his runs on his way to mustering just 12/35 rushing and a 1-yard catch on a 57% snap share. Warren has outscored Harris in 7-of-10 games and holds a strong advantage in FPG (12.5>9.9) despite Najee holding an advantage in snap share (55%>46%) and carry share (50%>31%).

Warren has run for 88+ yards and had over 110 scrimmage yards in three consecutive games. The Bengals are giving up the second-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.99), and they’ve allowed an individual RB to score 21+ FP in three out of their last four games, per Brolley’s Week 12 Game Hub. 

Michael Pittman will feast this Thanksgiving weekend. The Bucs are a phenomenal matchup for outside WRs anyway — their +4.0 schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game surrendered to wideouts over the last five weeks is 4th-most on the slate. But on top of that, Tampa won’t have CB Jamel Dean with a foot injury, CB Carlton Davis is questionable with a hip injury - and Pittman has averaged over 10 targets per game in his last five contests. Start him with confidence, per Dolan’s Week 12 Mismatch Report. 

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️

New Orleans Saints (45%) - New Orleans has an impressive 12 interceptions thus far, and Desmond Ridder has given the ball away 12 times himself this year. If you don’t mind carrying two defenses, the Saints have incredible matchups in Week 14 (Carolina) and 15 (NYG).

New England Patriots (25%) – DeVito threw for 246 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11 but was also sacked nine times. The Pats have also forced an interception in five consecutive games.

DFS

Mean and Mobile

Each week, Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown and Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells are must-reads:

Prior to an injury plagued two-game stretch, Josh Downs was averaging 8.5 targets, 15.1 XFP/G, and 16.1 FPG. Those numbers would rank 16th-, 18th-, and 16th-best if over the full season. He gets the best possible matchup this week, against a Buccaneers defense that ranks worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (+5.2), per Barrett’s Week 12 DFS Breakdown. 

Kyler Murray is quietly the fantasy QB6 over the last two weeks, averaging 20.5 FPG (with 10.2 of that coming on the ground). The Rams have been solid against QBs through the air, but are giving up the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to QBs on the ground. The only two mobile QBs they’ve faced – Anthony Richardson and Jalen Hurts – both had 50-plus rushing yards and a rushing touchdown against them, per Barrett’s Week 12 DFS Breakdown. 

Buy DeVonta Smith. The Eagles are facing a Bills defense that uses two-high defensive looks at the 4th-highest clip in the NFL. Buffalo is also prone to taking away their opponent’s first read, allowing just a 59% first-read pass rate on all coverage dropbacks, 2nd only to the Jets (54%). This is a solid matchup for Smith ($7,100).

Smith has produced just as (if not more) than WR1 AJ Brown ($9,000) against two-high coverage this season, per Per Spanola’s Week 12 Coverage Shells.

TRADES & BETS

Gibbs Gon’ Give It To Ya

This is the Jahmyr Gibbs you wanted to see. Even over the past two games with David Montgomery healthy, Gibbs has continued to see the usage of a high-end RB1. Over those two games, his 19.9 XFP/G would rank as the RB3 if over the full season, his 52.1% route share as the RB10, and his 16.2% target share as the RB3. He and Montgomery have both been very efficient this season, so the Lions seem unlikely to change up this great backfield configuration they've found, per Heath’s Week 12 Big Board. 

Buy Drake London. His boy Des Ridder is back in the saddle, so London should start heating up coming out of the bye and presumably healthy for the stretch run. After facing NO and NYJ, his schedule looks very solid: vs. TB, at Car, vs. Ind, and at Chi in Week 17, per Hansen’s Week 12 Players to Trade/Trade For. 

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes IDP Prop bets for Week 12.

Props & Odds

Jerome Ford over 48.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings). DEN is allowing 5.8 YPC and a league-high 138.0 rushing YPG to RBs and a league-high 2.03 adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Expect CLE to try and control the run game, per Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 12. 

Josh Downs over 4.5 receptions (+125, ESPNBet) - TB is allowing the 6th-most receptions (84) to receivers aligned in the slot. Downs is off the injury report and has 5+ catches in 4 straight games, per Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 12. 

Joshua Dobbs under 37.5 rushing yards (-110, ESPNBet) - CHI is allowing the 8th-fewest rushing YPG (14.5) to QBs and no QB has run for more than 28 yards against CHI zone defense. CHI is also allowing the 2nd-fewest rushing YPG (79.5) overall, as they’re proving to be a stout defense, per Brolley’s Best Bets, Week 12. 

David Njoku over 39.5 receiving yards (-115, MGM) - Njoku had a whopping 15 targets last week and looks to be a favorite of QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Njoku has topped this yardage number in four of his last five games and has 46+ receiving yards in four of his five games without Deshaun Watson at QB. The Broncos defense he’s facing this week has allowed four different TEs to top this number over their last three games, per Paul’s Props, Week 12.

📱 Tweets

Blame the receivers, not their QB.

Not sure what to make of the Cowboys, but this isn’t a great stat…

Hope you all had some fun Thanksgiving dinner table discussions!

INJURY REPORT

Return of Jefferson

Last week, Edwin highlighted why Ty Chandler is a good option. This week:

Justin Jefferson is officially questionable for Monday nights game vs the Bears. Coach Kevin O'Connell maintains that they will do what's best for him and his health, but this is the third straight week he's questionable and we're getting close to his return. With their BYE looming, I'd wager they wait another week to activate him.

Edwin also believes that it might be time for Rashod Bateman to make an impact this season:

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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