Welcome to Week 2. If you’re reading this, it means you survived Week 1, where we already lost a promising RB in J.K. Dobbins (for the season), an elite RB for the week (Austin Ekeler) and many talented players have missed time (Christian Watson, Jerry Jeudy, Travis Kelce). But we love this game. Right? Right?!

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Week 2 Roundup

DFS Breakdown

Each week Scott Barrett lists the best and most interesting plays of the week, grouped by position and ranked. Four players to keep an eye on:

Tony Pollard ($7,500) – Pollard’s Week 1 usage was awesome, even in a 40-0 rout that was never competition. His usage was so good (and he’s been so terrific all throughout his career) that Scott thinks he’s now legitimately in play to finish as fantasy football overall RB1, and in the meantime value him as an easy top-5 fantasy RB. Up against a Jets defense that’s tougher against the pass then the run, Pollard could easily clear 150 YFS and score 3 touchdowns as Micah Parsons curbstomps Zach Wilson.

Zach Moss ($4,700) – Last week Deon Jackson ranked 3rd-best among all RBs in XFP (18.5), but was generationally inefficient. Moss was the clear RB1 for the Colts at the tail-end of last season, averaging 17.3 carries and 83.5 rushing YPG. And he’s going to be the team’s clear RB1 this week, and until Jonathan Taylor returns. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he’s up against the league-worst run defense from just a season ago, and he definitely shouldn’t be only $4,700.

A.J. Dillon, Packers ($5,900) – Assuming Aaron Jones is out… The Packers RB3 (Emanuel Wilson) is a UDFA from Fort Valley State (Division II), which should leave Dillon as the presumptive bell cow in what was the 7th-most valuable backfield in fantasy last season (25.1 FPG). If Dillon can claim 70% of Jones’ 2022 role, we’d be looking at ~17.9 XFP/G (RB4 last season) – making him arguably the top RB value of the slate. But then again, that’s not what happened in 2021, as Dillon averaged a far worse 11.7 FPG and maxed out at around 18 opportunities.

Jahan Dotson, Commanders ($4,900) – Terry McLaurin is still not quite 100% and draws a worst-possible matchup against Patrick Surtain’s shadow coverage. Dotson, meanwhile, gets the guy (Demarri Mathis) Jakobi Meyers just roasted for 29.1 fantasy points.

But wait, the matchup gets better… Since the start of last season, Dotson ranks 9th (directly behind Jakobi Meyers) among 89-qualifying WRs in fantasy points per route run against man coverage. Denver played man at the 6th-highest rate in the league last week (36%), and Dotson will mostly face man coverage (from Mathis) even on a large chunk of the plays Denver is in zone.

Read the full article to learn why Scott is targeting James Cook and Puka Nacua in Week 2.

Top Values

Jake Tribbey provides insight on the Week 1 main slate using Scott Barrett's DFS SuperModel and projections.

Travis Etienne’s Week 1 usage represented a very encouraging shift in Etienne’s role to include significant pass-game involvement. He earned an 80% snap share and 69% route share in Week 1. Last year, he exceeded an 80% snap share three times, and his game-high in route share was just 58%. And his five receptions were his most since the 2020 College Football Playoff.

If we think Etienne has finally carved out a serious receiving role, this is the week to play him. Kansas City was the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs through the air (+2.1 receiving FPG) last season, and Jacksonville should be playing from behind as 3.5-point underdogs.

Nico Collins averaged 15.4 XFP/G in the final nine weeks of 2022 (WR15 over the full season). And in Week 1, we saw him (yet again) dominate WR usage, finishing with the 8th-most XFP (19.7) of any WR. This Colts' defense gave up the 3rd-highest passer rating (96.2) last season and just got torched for 13/156/2 on the outside by Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley. The price is good, the matchup is good, and the usage is great. Collins is a top WR value this week.

Zach Ertz didn’t just earn some of the best usage on a per-route basis in Week 1, he saw some of the best usage among all pass catchers – ranking 9th in XFP (19.7) among WRs and 1st (by 5.1 XFP) among TEs. He also ranked top 3 among TEs in route share (85%) and air yard share (30%). Love it or hate it, Ertz checked all the boxes needed to be a low- to mid-range TE1 for the rest of the season.

Read the full article to learn Jake’s priority targets for Week 2, which include Deebo Samuel and David Montgomery.

Start/Sits

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 2.

Start Daniel Jones (at Cardinals). We correctly called the Giants' struggles offensively last week as Dallas completely smothered the Giants' offensive line. Losing T Andrew Thomas doesn’t help things, either. Keeping Jones upright was a massive problem for the Giants last year. Jones was pressured on 36.5% of his dropbacks (second-highest rate).

This is as good of a bounceback spot as you could ask for, though.

Over the last three seasons, Jones has averaged 19.8 FPG as a favorite vs. 14.1 FPG as an underdog. The Giants (-6) are the fifth-largest favorites on the board. Sam Howell (15.2 FP) finished as the QB12 in this spot Week 1.

Sit Dak Prescott (vs. Jets). Dak didn’t have to do much offensively last week as the Cowboys' defense did the heavy lifting, creating sacks and turnovers all game long. Despite the Cowboys' 40-burger, Prescott finished the week with just 6.3 FP (QB28). Unfortunately, Dak’s outlook this week is not much better. The Cowboys offense could wind up in a similar spot to last week – not having to do much – as massive 9.5-point favorites over the Jets.

The Jets are one of the few defenses to be afraid of actively. After allowing a league-low 11.1 passing fantasy points per game last season, the Jets held Josh Allen to the fewest FP (9.0) he’s scored in his last 71 starts since his rookie season in Week 1.

Dak is a low-floor QB2 for Week 2 lineup decisions.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits at RB (and see where Rachaad White and Najee Harris fall).

Coverage Shells

Nick Spanola shares his research on coverage matchups for defensive schemes.

One of the more notable fantasy storylines in this one is WR Diontae Johnson’s hamstring injury that will sideline him for Monday. Johnson’s status elevates the production floors of everyone else within that position room, but this Kenny Pickett-led offense faces a potent Browns pass rush.

Pickett was pressured on 46% of his dropbacks in Week 1 (top-five among qualified QBs). That makes sense when you bake in the game script, and Pittsburgh needing to pass the ball while trailing. But the Steelers take on a ferocious Browns defensive line on Monday, while also carrying a tough pass protection unit.

Allen Robinson was Pickett’s go-to weapon while under pressure.

• 23 routes on pressured throws (33% target share)

• 22 routes on clean throws (7% target share)

• Steelers face Browns on MNF — Steelers had the worst PFF pass block grade in Week 1 (31.0), while Cleveland had a top-5 pressure grade (76.5)

Read the full article for insight into the Jaguars WR room, why you should not write off Christian Kirk and more.

Extra Points

Trades and Targets

Trade for Josh Jacobs, who had held on to one of the best roles in the league, seeing five carries inside the 10-yard line (RB2) and commanding 87.1% of his backfield's XFP (RB2), per Ryan Heath’s Rest of Season Trade Value article.

Worry about Christian Kirk, who played just one snap in 2-WR, 2-TE formations (12-personnel) in Week 1. That part-time usage is why Kirk finished the day with 3 targets (1/9 receiving). Now, the Chiefs play man coverage, against which Kirk is better, but the bad news is that man matchup will come in the form of CB Trent McDuffie, who allowed just 1 reception to Amon-Ra St. Brown in his primary coverage last week. As a rookie in 2022, McDuffie didn’t allow a single receiver to catch more than 3 passes on him, nor did any receiver top 34 yards (Hunter Renfrow led in both categories), per Joe Dolan’s Mismatch Report.

Sell Aaron Jones, whose role was not much different from last year, but ran hot by scoring multiple TDs Week 1. Due to this, he had the largest differential between his opportunity and his actual production of any RB. But because of Jones’ history (before 2022) of being a fringe RB1, you can likely swap him for a top-40 player right now, per Heath’s Rest of Season Trade Value article.

Trade for Jameson Williams. The Guru is getting some vibes on Williams that lead him to believe that the Lions are encouraged by where he’s at and his prospects when he returns in Week 7. The OL is great, and they will have a nice balance with their RBs, so all they’re missing is the lid-lifter Williams, who could have the highest single-play upside we’ve seen since DeSean Jackson in his prime, per Guru’s Week 2 Players to Trade/Trade For.

Tweets

Don’t be the one to overthink Joshua Kelley this week.

If you buy high on Tony Pollard, you’ll be OK.

Congratulations to the D’Andre Swift owners among us.

Injury Report

Disappearing Stars

Dr. Edwin Porras breaks down the fantasy football relevant injuries and associated risk for Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season.

Last week, Edwin highlighted why you should be acquiring Breece Hall everywhere. This week:

Jerry Jeudy: As predicted, Week 2 seems like a lock barring a last-second setback. Watch for the 30% recurrence rate in DFS, but Jeudy should provide gamers with a decent flex option in his first week back. Minimize DFS exposure until next week, though.

Aaron Jones: Jones is listed as questionable but has not practiced all week. Although it is possible he plays, it doesn’t seem likely. Since 2018 RBs have missed 1.25 games per hamstring injury. At worst, Jones will be back in Week 4 based on the current available information. There are probably better options than A.J. Dillon, but he’s a fine play this week.

Christian Watson: The initial projection for Watson was Week 2 or 3, and early this week, it was looking to be Week 3 as he had not practiced for two days, until Friday. Last year a player by the name of Christian Watson went DNP-DNP-LP and ended up playing. This one is going to come down to the wire.

Brandin Cooks: Cooks reportedly has a grade I MCL sprain, and he’s a “game-time decision” as many Cowboys have been in the past. He’s a coin flip, but it’s not likely he plays or plays well, as he’ll be at significantly less than 100%.

Darren Waller: Waller’s current issue is likely associated with/ his lower back and hamstring history. The fact of the matter is he’s a 31-year-old big boy with a long-standing low back issue and a hamstring strain. He’s either going to stay healthy and lead the Giants in targets and touchdowns or has the potential to flame out and spend most of his time on the training room table.

Read Dr. Edin Porras’ updated (through the 11:30 am inactives) Week 2 Injury Report here.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our Week 2 projections and rankings are accessible to FantasyPoints subscribers:

• 2023 Week 2 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

• Latest FantasyPoints Articles

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