Welcome to Week 6. We are officially in "just survive another week” territory after losing studs named Jefferson, Achane, Richardson and Connor, all in one week.

⏰ NOTE: Don’t forget to check your lineups as we have a 9:30 AM EST kickoff with the Ravens and Titans playing in London.

We are have special giveaways for subscribers who complete our 1-minute survey 👇️ 

Last week’s edition of The Roundup highlighted Breece Hall, Detroit D/ST, David Montgomery and Dallas Goedert - all who produced matchup-winning days in Week 5.

Subscribers, join our Discord — if you’re not in there already - for personal start/sit questions & much more.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

Game Ball

King Of The North

Brett Whitefield breaks down last week’s most outstanding player.

On Jared Goff: “Like Jon Snow, after a bit of success, Goff was cast off - labeled as the bastard son of Sean McVay and exiled to the North. But it turns out Goff has royal bloodlines. The Lions QB is arguably playing the best football of his career.” Throw for throw, Goff was the most impressive QB in the league in Week 5.

• Goff had a 96.1% catchable ball rate, the highest ever in our three-year sample size.

• Brett charted Goff with four ‘hero’ throws, where the throw itself beats the coverage or maximizes the result of a big play.

• Goff shredded two-high looks (a former weakness) going 11/12 for 89 yards and 2 TDs.

Read the full article to understand how Goff’s levelled up in 2023.

EVERYTHING REPORT

Josh and Jaylen 📈 

Josh Jacobs’ usage remains amazing, and significantly better than it was last year (when he was RB3.) He currently ranks 3rd in XFP per team play, 3rd in carry share, and 1st in target share (17.7%, up from 10.6% last year). He ranks 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G (19.7), but he is only 11th in FPG (15.6). In other words, he’s a massive positive regression candidate. Expect no worse than a mid-range RB1 finish.

Jaylen Waddle’s time is coming. Last week, Waddle led the team in targets (10) and XFP (22.4) but scored only 14.5 fantasy points. This was the 3rd-most XFP of Waddle’s career together with his 2nd-worst ever performance (falling 7.9 (!) points shy of his expectation). Waddle has out-scored his XFP by +114% over the last two seasons, the 3rd-best mark of any WR over this span. He’s a strong buy-low target if your league-mates are viewing him as anything less than a high-end WR2.

Tony Pollard remains a massive regression candidate (-3.7) for all of the reasons we’ve been saying. It was just never going to come in a Week 5 matchup against the 49ers. His buy low window will likely close soon.

Prepare for Week 6 with Scott Barrett’s Everything Report.

WEEK 6 START/SITS

Jordan AddiSZN

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 6.

Start Jordan Addison. Despite running 36 fewer routes than KJ Osborn, Addison has more targets (28) and much better production (1.65 YPRR) than Osborn (25 and 0.92 YPRR). Addison is an upside play on the WR2/3 border against a Bears secondary allowing the 8th-most FPPG to perimeter receivers.

Sit Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson is struggling on the ground, averaging just 1.71 yards after contact (49th-of-50 RBs) and 0.18 missed tackles forced per carry (40th). Making matters worse, Ezekiel Elliott has more XFP when the game is tied or when the Patriots are trailing than Stevenson (18.0 for Elliott & 17.7 for Stevenson) over the last three weeks. He’s now a wait-and-see player.

Start Tyler Lockett. He leads the Seattle WR group in expected fantasy points (15.2 Half-PPR), so we have to expect a bounceback at some point. Lockett is still running 36% of his routes lined up in the slot, important because the Bengals have allowed 5 TDs to slot wideouts.

Consider sitting Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson. We’re left with McLaurin as a desperation FLEX play while Dotson is droppable in shallow (10-team) leagues. Washington is among the most pass-heavy teams, but they barely throw to their two best players. This matchup is tough with AJ Terrell and Jeff Okudah limiting opposing outside wideouts to the 2nd-fewest yards per game (69.2).

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (and see why he’s sitting Jared Goff and starting Cole Kmet)

Has Drake London (quietly) arrived? He’s coming off season-highs in receiving yards (78), targets (9), and catches (6). He’s posted 11+ FP in three of his last four games. Washington’s secondary was roasted by D.J. Moore (8/230/3 receiving) and A.J. Brown (9/175/2) in consecutive games, making London a startable WR this week, per Tom Brolley’s Week 6 Game Hub.

Rachaad White might struggle. A true bell cow, White is playing 77.3% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps (7th-most among RBs), running a route on 60.8% of their dropbacks (4th-most), and is 20th in XFP per game (14.1).

Unfortunately, he’s also faced the Saints and Eagles, two of the best-run defenses in the league, and now gets the Lions, who have held each of their five opponents under 100 non-scramble rushing yards this season, and three of their five opponents below 50 rushing yards. White faces an uphill battle for production this week, per Joe Dolan’s Week 6 Mismatch Report.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️

Las Vegas Raiders (2%) vs. NE – The Pats have the 3rd worst dropbacks under pressure rate in the NFL at 44.7% which has led to six turnovers and three defensive scores over the past two weeks. Close your eyes and click add.

Atlanta Falcons (9%) vs WAS – Sam Howell has been sacked 29 times through five weeks, thrown five interceptions, and the team has lost four fumbles. The more Washington drops Howell back to pass, the better our chances of FP.

DFS WEEK 6

Make Way for Montgomery

Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown, Jake Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall and DFS Values and Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells are must-reads:

Ja’Marr Chase’s usage is dramatically different than it was last year, and significantly more valuable. He currently leads all players in both XFP and XFP per play, and his 37.2 XFP last week ranks 2nd-most by any player in any game over the past three seasons. Although Seattle was elite against WRs last year, they now rank worst in the league this year by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+15.3), per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

DK Metcalf cooked man coverage last year (0.60 fantasy points per route) and struggled against zone (0.36 fantasy points per route). The Bengals run man coverage at the league’s 8th-highest rate (33%), setting Metcalf up for a big day, per Tribbey’s DFS Study Hall.

Michael Pittman is an upside play. The Jaguars allow the second most DraftKings FPG to outside WRs (25.0), and Pittman owns 60% of the team’s targets from out wide this season, along with a 2.06 YPRR. He also carries a 41% first-read target share against zone coverage, the fourth-highest in the NFL this season, per Spanola’s Coverage Shells.

Kyren Williams leads the Rams backfield in a projected game script which implies a run-heavy approach (Rams favored by 7.0 points). The matchup is excellent as well – the Rams have the 2nd-highest implied point total of the slate (27.75), and go up against an Arizona defense that is surrendering the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+6.2), per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

David Montgomery is HIM. He has a 78% snap share inside the 10 on a team that’s averaging as many red zone trips per game as Kansas City (3.8) and a 34% route share in games with Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery has been efficient, ranking 3rd in missed tackled forced per attempt and 6th in yards after contact per attempt among qualifying RBs.

With Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) OUT, Montgomery is a cash game lock and the best RB value of the slate (especially on FanDuel), per Tribbey’s DFS Values.

EXTRA POINTS

Kupping It Real

Cooper Kupp flies up Heath’s Week 6 Big Board. Kupp immediately took on 40% of the Rams' first-read targets and ran 87.8% of the possible routes while averaging nearly 3.3 YPRR. As long as there are no setbacks, he looks well set up to be productive the rest of the season.

Acquire Chris Olave. He’s done little the past two weeks (other than a cheap TD), so he might present a small buying opportunity — especially since he got dinged in warmups in Week 5. Hansen thinks his value will be rising shortly, thanks to a really nice schedule these next five weeks: at Hou, vs. Jax, at Ind, vs. Chi, and at Min - and if Michael Thomas misses time again, Olave’s upside soars, per Hansen’s Week 6 Players To Trade/Trade For.

CeeDee Lamb is more name than production. After Jerry Jones' bewildering comments in which he balked at getting Lamb the ball more and stated he prefers to spread it around, it's probably time to face the music on Lamb’s incredibly ordinary 14.4 XFP/G (WR25) and 23.9% first-read target share (WR35). We’ve excused the results based on odd game scripts until now, but the Cowboys continue to spread the ball around, per Heath’s Week 6 Big Board.

CJ Stroud’s outlook skyrockets. The Texans offensive line being healthy is a massive bump to Stroud’s outlook. His FP/DB when under pressure is 6th worst in the league, and his FP/DB from a clean pocket is 15th highest in the league. He also gets to his 1st Read 35% more often, which will be more targets for Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who both see their target share rise about 6% when Stroud is not pressured, per Wecht’s Five Stats to Know.

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes IDP Prop bets for Week 6.

📱 Tweets

Don’t write off Sean Payton too soon...

Devante Adams is still elite. He’ll show it again this week.

Looking for an Anthony Richardson replacement?

Injury Report

Ekeler Finally Returns

Last week, Dr. Edwin Porras highlighted why you should be hesitant with Carr and his weapons. This week:

Austin Ekeler is back. The last time he returned after a high ankle sprain, he scored 85% of his seasonal average in fantasy points. Managers should expect about that in Week 6.

Saquon Barkley: Barkley is practicing in a limited fashion again this week, but his ankle is heavily taped, and on video, he still isn't moving quite right. This is technically a re-injury for Barkley, so there's a chance the symptoms are worse. Daniel Jones has been ruled OUT, so they may also hold out Saquon.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: ARSB practiced fully on Thursday and should be good to go on Sunday. There should be no performance setbacks, but there is a small chance of re-injury, enough to fade him in cash games this week.

Tee Higgins: Higgins returned to practice this week, but it's tough to trust a WR with broken ribs. The Bengals offense looks back, but Higgins isn't necessarily a must-start in 12-team leagues if he plays. The primary concern here is re-injury (16% likelihood).

• Miles Sanders: OUT (shoulder).

• Khalil Herbert (ankle): OUT

• Roschon Johnson (concussion): OUT

• Deshaun Watson: OUT (shoulder)

• Jahmyr Gibbs: OUT (hamstring)

• Zay Jones: OUT (knee)

• Daniel Jones: OUT (neck)

• Treylon Burks: OUT (knee)

Read Dr. Edwin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30 am inactives here: Week 6 Injury Report.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our Week 6 projections and rankings are accessible to FantasyPoints subscribers:

• 2023 Week 6 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup. If you never want to miss a Fantasy Points article again, hit subscribe below.

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